The GIEC report in 18 graphics - {Sciences²}

More precise.More alarming.More reliable.More educational.TheIPCC group-1 has just published its report as part of the preparation of the 6th report of this group of intergovernmental experts on climate development.The first was published in 1990.It served as a scientific basic for the development of the UN Climate Convention, signed in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.

TheIPCC is divided into three working groups.The first takes care of climate physics - how it was, is and will be in the future according to the different possible scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions by humanity.The second analyzes the consequences of this climate change on natural and agricultural ecosystems and on human societies as well as on the possible adaptations of these to these threats.The third wonders about the policies to drive to reduce these threats by reducing our greenhouse gas emissions.

Groups 2 and 3 must approve their reports in February and March 2022.The summary report is scheduled for the end of September 2022.

This note presents the summary for decision -makers of group 1 and its document "answers to frequent questions" (FAQ in English) through a selection of graphics quickly commented.She therefore only relates to climate physics.

The temperatures :

Les signes du changement climatique :

Heat waves multiply

Arctic ice floe is shrinking

Proof of the anthropogenic cause of warming

The report focuses its summary on three possible future.A first where warming is limited to 1.5 ° C, a second where it rises to 2 ° C, a third where it climbs up to 4 ° C.This educational presentation must not mislead: these three scenarios are not at all equiprobable.The first would imply a drastic decrease in global emissions today at a very high pace.Its economic, social and political probability is zero.The second presupposes the commitment of very severe policies of restricting the use of fossil fuels and many other elements of an effective climate policy.Its probability is low, but if these policies were engaged within 10 years in the world level, this scenario cannot be ruled out.The third corresponds ... to the historical trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions since 1992, the year of UN climate agreement.In other words, to realize it, it is enough to continue as today.

The temperature maps of these three simulations (the cards show averages of all the simulations made by the scientific teams):

Temperature scales

And here are the simulations for precipitation according to the three cases

Middle temperature or precipitation will change, but the frequencies and intensities of the weather or extreme climatic episodes also.

Thus, the areas that risk the most to be affected by droughts are very unevenly distributed on the surface of the earth

Much more frequent and intense heat waves

The future sea level

Ocean acidification

What about Gulf Stream?

The authors of the summary for decision -makers:

Origin of graphics from the FAQ:

IPCC, 2021: Frequently Asked Questions.In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working GroupI To the Sixth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel On Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P.Zhai, a.Pirani, s.L.Connors, C.Péan, s.Shepherd, n.Caud, y. Chen,L.GOLDFARB, M.I.Gomis, M.Huang, k.Leitzell, E.Lonnoy, J.B.R.Matthews, t.K.Maycock, t.Waterfield, o.Yelekçi, R.Yu and b.Zhou (eds.)]].In Press.