The discovery of new gas deposits in Morocco is uncertain

Analyzes of the discovery of new gas deposits in Morocco is uncertain Facebook Twitter Google +Press December 16, 2021 Interview with Francis Perrin - Morocco Hebdo What are the challenges and repercussions of the cessation of the supply of Morocco in natural gas by Algeria, since theNovember 1, 2021, via the Maghreb-Europe pipeline? Morocco bought Algerian gas which was transported by this gas pipeline to serve two power plants and, on the other hand, it benefited from transit rights linked to its territory of Algerian gasgoing towards the Iberian peninsula, Spain and Portugal.With the Algerian decision to stop the Maghreb-Europe pipeline from November 1, 2021, Morocco lost these two elements.Regarding gas for internal consumption of Morocco, Moroccan authorities had to find an alternative as quickly as possible to avoid electricity supply problems.For this, there are several options.Some are in the short term, others in the medium and long term, knowing that in the short term, we necessarily have fewer options than in the medium and long term since we can invest and develop strategies.In the short term, Morocco had the choice between importing fossil fuels (coal, etc.) to replace Algerian gas or import electricity from the European continent.We knew that Algerian gas was used to produce electricity in thermal power plants.In the medium and long term, the first option, which is not sure at all, is that we discover new gas deposits in Morocco.But there is no guarantee that it will happen.Exploration is a big risk -taking.The other medium and long -term option is to continue the development of renewable energies, which has been underway for many years.Morocco has, in this sense, an ambitious plan in terms of renewable energies, in particular wind and solar, with a view to bringing these two energy sources into power in the production of electricity.An option that has made renewable a priority for its energy policy.There is another option which consists in importing liquefied natural gas.Is it achievable, technically speaking? Algerian gas was imported by gas pipeline, so imported in its sparkling form.But we can transform this natural gas into liquid.This is called liquefied natural gas (LNG).The advantage of a liquid gas is that it can be transported and transported to destination in boats or ships called Lightners.For a long time, Morocco has had projects in importing liquefied natural gas but their implementation was postponed.One day, Moroccan officials said that it is not necessarily necessary to do so by 2020-2021 and that it could be postponed to 2028.But there is always this option to import liquefied gas which would not be Algerian gas but rather gas from other producing and gas exporters countries.Do you talk about certain countries in particular ... Yes, we could import from Nigeria, the United States, Russia, Qatar ... But for that, Morocco must be equipped with a terminal which allows it to receive theLightsmen and reweeping liquid gas.Do you mean that Morocco does not have this kind of terminals? No, unfortunately.There was a project to have this kind of terminals but it was delayed.It is planned in 2028.This project will undoubtedly be relaunched today, following the Algerian decision to stop the Morocco supply in natural gas.For all gas importing countries, cost is a strategic question.Is the price of liquefied gas more expensive than the one who passed through the Maghreb-Europe pipeline? Obviously, it is more expensive.Especially since in 2021, we had attended a significant increase in the price of gas in particular on the world market.So there is a physical quantity aspect and there is a cost aspect and thus, economical.One of the medium and long-term solutions would be to use part of the Maghreb-Europe pipeline which has just been closed.This gas pipeline starts from Algeria, crosses Morocco and the Mediterranean and arrives in Spain.Algeria has not put any gas in this gas pipeline since November 1.But the portion of the gas pipeline which belongs to Morocco can be used to import gas from Spain.This first assumes that Spain has gas to export to Morocco.But she could buy it and re -export it to Morocco.Algeria, for example? Algeria is opposed to this.But Spain can buy gas from other countries.This is an option to study technically and economically.There are no energy solutions that do not have a cost.You just have to estimate the costs and compare the advantages and disadvantages between the different options.In the immediate future, Morocco needs to cover its vital needs.Oneee has just concluded a contract with the British company Sound Energy relating to the production, treatment and delivery each year of 350 million m3 of gas, for a period of ten years, using the Maghreb-Europe pipeline (GME).Is this contract favorable in Morocco?And did we have the choice? I would say that it is completely logical.It is normal that Moroccan authorities and national societies contribute to the search for a solution knowing that for the moment, there is not a very large production of gas in Morocco.Why then not buy part of the quantities produced on our territory to meet national gas and electric needs?I would have been surprised otherwise.Ultimately, there could be other gas discoveries.Which is not impossible but it is not also a certainty.Nevertheless, compared to what has been discovered, it is reasonable that Morocco, through ONEE, makes known to Sound Energy that it is interested in acquiring this gas for needs.Sonatrach decided to stop the delivery of Morocco in natural gas on November 1, 2021.The same Algerian public company has renewed a commercial contract with Afriquia Gaz in the midst of a diplomatic crisis between the two countries and even though Algerian officials agitated the scarecrow of the non-renewal of the contract with Morocco via the Maghreb- Europe gas pipeline.What do you think? For Afriquia Gaz, according to the Russian agency Sputnik, it seems that the contract with Sonatrach was concluded for a period until December 2021.It is therefore logical in this context that LPG deliveries (liquefied oil gas, which is not the same as natural gas) by the Algerian national company Sonatrach continue until the expiration of this contract.The real test will come after, so from the end of December 2021.Regarding the GME, the cessation of natural gas deliveries intervened at the expiration of contracts signed in 1996, not before.I understand the reactions that this can arouse but in practical terms for Morocco, that does not seem to me an essential element with regard to the strategic issues that Morocco is currently going through after this Algerian-Moroccan crisis.At the end of April 2021, Algerian President Abdelmajid Tebboune had summoned Algerian companies to break any relationship and any contract with Moroccan companies.Then, three months later, we discover that Afriquia Gaz has renewed its contract with Sonatrach at the same time in the same year.Do you not find it contradictory? It was not Sonatrach who decided to interrupt the gas flows.It’s the Algerian government.As the Sonatrach is a national company, and its only shareholder comes to stop Morocco's supply, business leaders will not say no.But it is a fundamentally political decision, which was taken at the highest peak of the state.What happened with Afriquia Gaz illustrates the difficulty for Algeria to sometimes coherent politics and the economy.When you make a political decision, it will certainly have economic consequences.The example of stopping the Maghreb-Europe pipeline is edifying.There, there is at least a coherence on the Algerian side which sought to "punish" Morocco politically and economically.This does not mean that any economic relationship will stop on November 2.There could be an autonomy of the economic in relation to politics.When in the summer of 2021 broke out this diplomatic crisis, everyone knew that the fate of the GME was at stake because it was known that he was in line with the Algerian authorities.Any project or contract that does not have the same importance or this same visibility can sometimes go under radars.The GME is much more important than the agreement with Afriquia Gaz.A project that has such an economic and energy weight obviously acquires a political weight due to its size.Putting the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline to stop was an Algerian decision which sought to kneel Morocco on its knees.The goal has not been achieved.On the Algerian or Spanish side, what will be the impact? My answer may be a bit paradoxical.If we look at the main actors concerned, Algeria, Morocco, Spain and Portugal, the judgment of the GME for all these countries is not necessarily perceived as something dramatic.They have other options.The opposite case would be embarrassing for them.Algeria therefore loses the GME but it has another gas pipeline which links it directly to Spain, in this case Medgaz.If she had only one gas pipeline, she would not have stopped her.But as she has two, she could afford to stop a.In addition to this, Medgaz's ability is being increased.Sonatrach and Spanish company Naturgy had decided long before this crisis to increase the capacity of Medgaz, from 10 billion m3 to 10.5 billion m3 per year.Also, Algeria can deliver Spain in liquefied natural gas by sea.She has four gas liquefaction factories on her Mediterranean coast, in Arzew and Skikda.For its part, Morocco can get out of it.He will find, in the short, medium and long term, solutions to do without Algerian gas.This will have a cost, of course, but there will be no shortage of electricity in Morocco.On the side of Spain, the Iberian neighbors were most worried.They had insurance from Algeria that they will not lack gas.It remains to be seen at what price Spain will be delivered.To listen to you, it looks like no part of this affair is losing ... What is unfortunate in this case is that Maghreb cooperation has received a serious blow.There is not much economic and energy cooperation in the Maghreb.The GME was an emblematic project of this Maghreb energy cooperation between Algeria and Morocco who are not the best friends in the world.But, for 25 years, they have made the decision to cooperate and they did it despite their relations which knew ups and downs.It was a successful example of energy cooperation that we just killed.Interview by Morocco Hebdo.Sur la même thématique