The dizzying road of Germany for the climate requires not to counter France, but a mutual support
Thirty years after the start of the integration process of the Republic is German, Germany is embarking on a new titanic project: reaching climate neutrality in 2045 and reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 65% by here2030 (compared to 1990)!
Les choix allemands concernant la sortie quasi finalisée du nucléaire (trois réacteurs viennent encore d’être arrêtés, la mise à l’arrêt des trois derniers étant prévue pour la fin de l’année), ou la non limitation systématique de la vitesse sur les autoroutes, paraissent absurdes en France et à raison : les émissions du secteur électrique de la première puissance économique européenne baissent, mais en deçà du potentiel malgré les sommes colossales mobilisées et capacités renouvelables installées ; le boom des énergies renouvelables a connu un net ralentissement ces dernières années (le Japon a une capacité photovoltaïque installée supérieure, le Royaume-Uni est en tête pour l’éolien offshore) tandis que les obstacles s’élèvent partout ; le charbon et le gaz appelés pour pallier le manque de vent ont fait bondir les émissions en 2021 (AG Energiebilanzen avance le chiffre de + 4% pour les émissions de CO2 du secteur énergétique(1)) ; les secteurs du transport et du bâtiment ne progressent pas ; et les objectifs pour 2022 et 2023 sont déjà considérés comme hors d’atteinte par le nouveau vice-chancelier et ministre de l’Économie et du Climat Robert Habeck.
If the drop so far of around 40% of German emissions compared to 1990 seems spectacular, it is partly explained by the closure of the East-German capital stock (mostly emitting factories have mostly closed, as well as some coal -fired power plants), even if overall, it should also be noted a decline in the annual electricity production from coal, from 300 TWh in the 2000s to 150 TWh in 2021.
Germany now intends to accelerate on all fronts and three parties have allied to carry out an impossible mission, or at least, most difficult...
Aware of this very insufficient assessment, Germany now intends to accelerate on all fronts and three parties have combined to carry out an impossible mission, or at least, most arduous: managing to get out of coal from 2030, multiply by 4 capacitiesSolar installed and by 2 the wind capacities to this horizon to aim then 80% of renewable electricity, to become the champion of electric mobility and concretely launch the economy of hydrogen, and this by permanently closing the Civil Nuclear page.All, by guaranteeing competitive, safe and green energy to a most worried industry.If individuals are certainly inclined to pay more, and if consumers must also pay an increasing carbon tax for fuel and fossil heating, they have been relieved by the government's decision to take charge of all of the surchargeon electricity.
Germany has no choice: the Constitutional Court now has a Damocles sword weigh on any government summoned to reduce emissions so as not to damage future generations.And for the first time in Europe, the Greens who pilot the super ministry of the economy and the climate, are maneuvering.Berlin will have to pilot a forced march on a narrowest crest path.
The force of Germany: a financial capacity of gigantic borrowing, which will be mobilized massively, in particular for hydrogen or the decarbonation of the industry through the contracts for Different or the important projects of common European interest (PIEC). Mais aussi, des programmes de R&D et de passage à l’échelle, notamment sur le stockage d’électricité, le solaire, l’hydrogène, l’économie circulaire, la mobilité propre.Its paradoxes: the release of coal will require more than 20 GW new gas power plants and imports of electricity and hydrogen, or by-products.But also, immensely more low carbon electricity to supply the 10 GW of electrolysers now scheduled for 2030, and the electrification of residential heating, whose fuel oil and gas still satisfy 500 TWh of request per year at the moment.
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On the French side, we must take note of the choice of Germany to give priority to the release of nuclear at the expense of a faster decline in its programs.
Finally, vulnerabilities point because the decarbonization trajectory presumes that the whole external environment is favorable.Thus, that metals are available at competitive prices, that Russia provides low -cost gas at low prices without further destabilizing Ukraine, that low carbon hydrogen becomes a convenience freely exchanging on a global market, and otherMember States accept an accommodating European regulation vis-à-vis German choices.But also, that the safety of electrical supplies is guaranteed by the neighbors of Germany, first of all France, while it is less and less able to do so and will be confronted with a drop in German exports ofThermal electricity in winter.
On the French side, we must take note of the choice of Germany to give priority to the release of nuclear at the expense of a faster decline in its programs.Let’s stop tackling the toll of the poorly appropriate heating phase of Energiewende (2000-2020) and let's focus on four issues of a match in two half, 2020-2030 and 2030-2045 (and not2050!): To weigh in front of Germany, it is now also necessary to be able to assert real advances in decarbonation, accelerate the deployment of renewable energies, prove that new nuclear is a real asset and pilot the decarbonization of the industryFrench and its digitalization, another site that Germany will approach with delay, but substantial means.
It should also be tackled immediately the threat to the security of electrical supplies, knowing that Germany adds new constraints with its full nuclear release in the coming months, but that the French situation is no longer exemplary.Finally, it will be necessary to defuse disputes around nuclear power by showing that France and Germany need each other given the immense challenges shared: nuclear park aging in France, insufficient wind capacities at sea in particular, intermittent and storageshort and longer term of electricity.
Bien entendu, il sera également nécessaire d’aborder ensemble les enjeux du paquet climat européen « Fit for 55 »(2), le débat sur l’organisation du marché européen de l’électricité, la réforme du marché carbone (ETS) ainsi que les mesures destinées à renforcer l’autonomie industrielle de l’Europe.And finally, take advantage of the French presidency of the European Council, and the German presidency of the G7, to weigh in front of China, Russia and the United States, start the support mechanism for the closure of coal-fired power plants in theworld, regulate the emissions associated with our imports, initiate a credible and offensive strategy on metals and critical ores, on the eve of a super-cycle (boom of the demand of many metals to which the offer will not reach S'Adapting, pulling prices upwards and causing supply limitations) which could be accompanied by a super geopolitical hurricane whose Europeans, like gas, will make the fees again.
In reality, France and Germany must play in the same team so as not to lose both.