Energy in Morocco, what's new in 2020?
Bien que la plupart des agrégats, tirés de plusieurs sources[1], [2], [3], soient officiels jusqu’à fin décembre 2020, une bonne partie des chiffres de détail de 2020 sont estimés par nos soins et il est possible qu’il en résulte de légers écarts avec de futures données définitives.
Figure 1 shows the segmentation of total energy consumption in Morocco in 2020.
Figure 1 Segmentation of total energy consumption in Morocco in 2020
After having increased by 0.5% compared to the previous year, the total energy consumed in 2020 would have reached 21,807 MTEP (MTEP = millions of tonnes of oil equivalent) which consist:
As a result, the electricity consumed (8.231 MTEP) by Morocco represents 37.7% of total energy against 62.3% for the rest of the energy products (13.576 MTEP).
Figure 2 shows the "entry" side of the energy flow scheme in Morocco in 2020
Figure 2 The "entry" side of the energy flow scheme in Morocco in 2020
With only 9.4% of its net needs, Morocco remains energetically dependent at 90.6%.The raw energy produced in 2020, at 94.4% dominated by renewable energies, would have reached 2,082 MTEP including:
The subtraction of 0.1601 MTEPs of energy absorbed with raw energy produced leaves a net energy produced of 1.922 MTEP.As for the net energy consumed of 21.758 MTEP, it results from the deduction of 0.162 MTEP of exported electricity and the addition of the 19.998 MTEP of energy imported itself formed:
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Figure 3 shows the "output" side of the energy flow scheme in Morocco in 2020.
Figure 3 The "output" side of the energy flow scheme in Morocco in 2020
In terms of final energy:
As for sectoral consumption, our estimates tend to show that:
Figure 4 shows the "entry" side of the electricity flow scheme in Morocco in 2020.
Figure 4 The "entry" side of the electricity flow scheme in Morocco in 2020
The gross electricity produced in Morocco in 2020, which still includes 6,896 GWh (millions of kWh) of electricity of renewable origin [4] (or 17.8% of the total product), would have reached 38,753GWH:
Puisqu’il est courant de ne pas considérer les capacités installées par les « Tiers Nationaux » qui produisent de l’électricité à base de chaleur industrielle, la capacité totale de production serait de 11’151 MW à fin 2020 dont 3’537 MW de capacités renouvelables hors STEP. Si les 31,7% de capacités renouvelables obtenus s’écartent significativement des 36,8% annoncés en janvier 2021 par le Directeur Général de l’ONEE[5], c’est à cause de la prise en compte de la capacité STEP4 comme « renouvelable », indûment selon nous. En tous cas, quel que soit le chiffre retenu, aucun des deux n’atteint l’objectif global des 42% à cause du fait que ni l’éolien ni le solaire n’ont atteint les 2’000 MW prévus par la Stratégie Énergétique Nationale.
A net electricity produced of 38,138 GWh is obtained after subtraction of the 615 GWh of electricity absorbed in raw electricity produced (see Figure 4).Then, the addition of the 856 GWH imported and the deduction of the 624 GWH exported lead to net injected electricity of 38,370 GWh.We will return to the evolution of the balance of exchanges with foreigners later, especially in the context of the comments in Figure 6.
Of the 38,370 GWh of injected electricity, 6,440 GWh (i.e. 16.8%) would have lost themselves throughout the national network, that of the ONEE [6] but also that of the 11 other distributors, while31,930 GWh (83.2%) could have been sold.
Figure 5 shows what is happening on the "exit" side of the electricity flow scheme in Morocco in 2020.
Figure 5 The "output" side of the electricity flow scheme in Morocco in 2020
Thus, Figure 5 shows that:
Figure 6 shows the monthly evolution over 12 slippery months of:
Ne coïncidant pas avec l’électricité injectée à cause des pertes dans ses propres réseaux6, les livraisons de l’ONEE (courbe noire grasse de la Figure 6) représentent toutefois le meilleur proxy officiel de l’électricité effectivement vendue puisque les réseaux de distribution, à cause de leur réseau court, n’en perdent que 6 à 8% et représentent moins de la moitié avec 37% des ventes.
Figure 6: Monthly evolution of 12 -month slide satisfaction of the need for electricity in Morocco
Morocco was exported net of its monthly production surpluses as early as December 2018 to the point that its balance of exchanges over 12 months was able to become surplus from July 2019 to May 2020, in the area surrounded by a dotted circle in High right in Figure 6. Furthermore, on the same figure 6, it is clear that this exporter balance could have been widely satisfied by the production of renewable electricity (wind or solar) which benefits from better prices on the European market . But the year 2020 finally ended by restricting the total of net production below the needs in clear electricity to the point that the monthly average balance becomes slightly importer, in fact less than 1% of the electricity injected into the national network for the rest of the year. It is true that in Europe too, the COVVI-19 epidemic also negatively impacted demand for electrical energy slowing down the exporting dynamics of Morocco in March 2020.
While Figure 6 clearly shows the regular increase in renewable components (especially wind and solar), the blue-green base of local net production excluding renewable shows two "bumps":
The erasure of the public sector in the face of private electricity production is neither recent nor specifically Moroccan since the wind of Thatcherism [1979, 1990], supported by the presidency of Ronald Reagan [1981, 1989], triggeredThe erasure of all the parts of the public sectors against the private sector.Specifically concerning the Moroccan electricity production sector, Figure 8 clearly shows the evolution of the electricity shares produced in Morocco by the public and private sectors and highlights the transfer, by jolts, of shares ofHistorical operator market in the private sector as the concession markets are awarded or, since the last decade, advances in the independent production of private players acting within the framework of the LER 13/09.
While private renewable power plants have been very gradually nibbled on market share since 2000, the disposal of the most steep production markets had already started in 1996 and were carried out at the commissioning of private thermal power plants, in particularThat of coal of Jorf Lasfar (1996 to 2000) as well as its extension (2013 to 2014), then that with natural gas from Tahaddart (2009 to 2010) and finally that with coal of Safi (2018).Without being "in the secret of gods", it seems that the use of natural gas paid by the royalty of the Maghreb - Europe combined with coal -based private production was an effective way to obtain a kWh at the lowest costFor this country which is energetically dependent at more than 90%.But are we not going to end up paying dearly these withdrawals from the OneE and is not risking, in the long term, to throw the baby with the bath water?
Regarding privatization, that of the Tahaddart natural gas (CGCC) power plant, approved on November 8, 2018 and integrated into the 2020 finance law, seems ultimately a "false good idea".First of all because the company Energie Électrique de Tahaddart (EET) operating the power station is already private, even if 48% of the shares are held by a public operator (ONEE).Then, because, even if the stakeholders have been careful not to communicate (as usual) on the exact content of the contract which binds them, we can say that what the shares held by the ONEE would report is completely sealed byThe short duration of future income from a purchase contract ending in 2025:
As an indication, the estimate of a very coarse value on the part of the ONEE in EET based on half of the "good will" would not exceed 48% x 400 million DH (estimated on the basis of 0.08DH net income per kWh for the still 10,000 GWH to provide) while the share of the ONEE in half of the initial cost of the power station would reach 48% x 1.55 billion DH;The CGCC is well worth this after being stopped from April to June 2020 to be completely renovated and even increased its capacity from 384 to 407 MW.Supposing that the EET contract is extended, will we privatize or not?
Figure 7 parts of electricity produced by the public and private sectors and rural electrification
How could the Electricity Branch of the OneE be in good financial health when:
Onee has been a major tool for implementing public policies for the latest decades and will no doubt be. In this regard, and at the risk that it costs even more expensive later, it is completely legitimate that we take out "plastering solutions" [8] and that enough public funds are put on the table, not only To get the ONEE out of the worse podium of the worst payers among public companies and establishments [9] (EEP) but to gradually and completely put it back in return [10] of effective and transparent management reconnecting with productivity and Economic performance in accordance with the new donations of the Moroccan electricity market. The COVID-19 crisis, but not only it, have shown the world that the "all-private" was not the panacea and how important it is to preserve the performance of public services to avoid having to undergo the consequences of reducing their size.
Comme montré à la Figure 7, en parallèle à cette « avenue » qui a été offerte au charbon cette dernière décade, la mise en service des centrales éoliennes et solaires a permis la descente, certes très erratique, vers 633 grammes d’équivalent CO2 par kWh, du facteur d’émission de gaz à effet de serre de l’électricité produite au Maroc en 2020. Les oscillations intempestives visibles sur la Figure 7 sont surtout dues à celles de la production hydroélectrique elle-même pilotée par la pluviométrie à cause de laquelle, hélas, le Maroc n’a produit en 2020 qu’un huitième de ce qu’auraient pu produire les centrales hydroélectriques de nos barrages si nous avions eu assez d’eau pour le faire !
Figure 8 Grammes d’équivalent CO2 émis pour chaque kWh d’électricité produite au Maroc.
Par Amin BENNOUNA (sindibad@uca.ac.ma)
Références[1] Ministère de l'Energie, des Mines et de l'Environnement du Royaume du Maroc, Portail des statistiques de l'Observatoire Marocain de l'Energie, https://www.observatoirenergie.ma/data/[2] Direction des Etudes et des Prévisions Financières du Ministère de l'Economie, des Finances et de la Réforme de l'Administration du Royaume du Maroc, Notes de Conjoncture, http://depf.finances.gov.ma/etudes-et-publications/note-de-conjoncture/[3] Bank Almaghrib, Revue de la Conjoncture Economique, http://www.bkam.ma/Publications-statistiques-et-recherche/Documents-d-analyse-et-de-reference/Revue-de-la-conjoncture-economique[4] Bien que faisant partie de l’énergie hydraulique, l’électricité produite par les stations de transfert d’énergie par pompage (STEP) ne doit pas être comptée parmi les renouvelables car elles ne sont qu’un moyen de stockage qui absorbe lui-même de l’électricité, qui peut ne pas être de source renouvelable. Il se trouve que, justement, presque tous les jours jusqu’à fin 2018, la STEP d’Afourer du Maroc a été presque exclusivement alimentée par de l’électricité importée la nuit à bon marché, de source non renouvelable.[5] Abderrahim El Hafidi, Directeur Général de l’ONEE, "Bilan des réalisations de l’ONEE", 29 janvier 2021, http://www.one.org.ma/fr/doc/Communication/Dossier%20sp%C3%A9cial%20ONEE_29_01_2021%20fran%C3%A7ais.pdf[6] Amin BENNOUNA, "Les 'pertes non-techniques' dans le réseau électrique de l’ONEE engloutissent plus que l’électricité solaire produite à Ouarzazate !", Webmagazine EcoActu, 28 février 2020, https://DOI.ORG/10.13140/RG.2.2.34602.98248[7] Obtenir des contrats d’achat d’électricité au prix le plus bas incite à acheter (ou sinon la payer) toute l’électricité générée par les concessionnaires de production d’électricité.
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