Nuclear: major challenge of the presidential elections of 2022?

The need for an open and transparent debate on the future of our energy sector in France is often mentioned.Arises in this context the question of a possible revival of nuclear.

Different notes were thus produced, such as that of HCP [1] "Electricity: duty of lucidity", of OPECST [2] on "the nuclear energy of the future", or of the Academy of Sciences: "L'Contribution of nuclear energy in the energy transition ».

We can however wonder about the approach adopted within the framework of these discussions.

Nuclear faces several challenges

Beyond the technical and safety constraints that slow down the dissemination of this technology, if the sector today benefits from a better image due to its ability to produce low carbon pilotable electricity with a high charging factor,She remains faced with several problems:

So far, the nuclear sector has failed to react well to these challenges: 5 -year construction delays are common, even in China, sometimes 10 years or more.Budgetary exceeding, which can go largely beyond 30 to 50%, have been found.These difficulties have strongly impacted the sector, with for example the bankruptcy of Westinghouse or the restructuring of Areva.

Despite the potential arrival of new technologies, it seems difficult to solve these short -term problems without significant organizational changes.

Constant drop in nuclear part in the world

Since 1996, the nuclear share, then of 17.5% of global demand, has constantly dropped to lead to 10.5% today.Investments have stagnated for 10 years around 30-35 billion USD per year, or only 4 to 5% of annual investments in the electricity sector, the market is today mainly in Asia, two thirds in China.

In 2020, the projections of the IAEA [3] for the capacities installed in 2050, varied between a drop of 7%, and an increase of 82%.The “high” scenario would mean for nuclear a part of 20% of global electric demand.However, the current trend does not correspond to these forecasts: according to the IEA [4], we would reach just over 450 GWE in 2040, against 415 GWE today.

It is difficult to imagine that the new nuclear technological (SMR [5] or Gen-4 [6]) drastically change this trajectory.They will not see the light of day before 2030-2040, and the long deployment and adjustment times of the sector, already allow us to anticipate that they will not play a decisive role for our 2050 objectives.

Extend the lifetime of power plants as much as possible is then crucial, which presents technical issues - which must be studied on a case -by -case basis - but also economic.In the United States, a third of reactors are not profitable or are planned to close.

What scenarios for France?

For the share of French nuclear power to be 50% in 2050, we should build, according to RTE, 14 EPR (or 28 GW) by 2050, and prolong the life of power stations up to 60 years (24 GW).

A rational approach would order, taking into account the feedback from the first constructions - with delays of more than ten years and budgetary overruns of more than 10 billion - and sectoral weaknesses identified, that this decade is an opportunity to move forwardOn at least 3 points:

Go further, appreciates according to the success of the first project.Such a scenario would however limit the number of EPRs that can be built by 2050: it is therefore not sure that we have so much flexibility in the choice of our energy scenarios.

Support for the sector, must also appreciate according to commercial opportunities, and the fallout.However, the size of the international market remains limited, especially since the large market is China.And research, apart from hydrogen production with Gen-4 reactors, seems relatively isolated from transition technologies: AI [9], batteries, intelligent networks, demand management, electric vehicles, recycling, etc.So many developments that are associated with renewable energies.

Recovery of nuclear?Finally, what are we talking about

None of the grades produced in France approach these questions and the strategic analysis of the sector appears very succinct.

The nuclear situation contrasts with the dynamics of renewable energies: more than 90% of electricity production facilities that are connected today in the world, are renewable energies.The sector mobilizes $ 300 billion, or 40% of investments in electricity production.The capacities have been quadrupled since 2009 to reach 280 GW in 2020.In just 10 years, solar costs have dropped by more than 90%, those of wind more than 60%.Most markets work today without subsidy.Finally, their deployment poses no difficulty - even if the availability of materials and the environmental consequences of their extraction are today the subject of studies, in anticipation of volumes which will be necessary in the next decades.

Our national champions in the sector have strong ambitions, each with projects for several tens of GW by 2030.And impressive international successes, such as EDF Re of the most powerful photovoltaic power plant in the world (2 GW), at a cost of 11.14 EUR/MWh, 10 times less than the cost of Hinkley Point EPRs, also built by EDF.

In addition, only renewable energies will connect to the French network between 2020 and 2035.The sector is brought to crosis significantly, with at least 140 GW planned by 2050, resulting in numerous fallout for different associated sectors.

We can therefore reasonably wonder if nuclear should be a priority subject.The challenges seem rather elsewhere: electrification of uses, development of renewables and improvement of the regulatory framework, evolution of transport and distribution networks, development of flexibility tools.

Knowing that the electricity sector may not have to stir up the passions as much as.It is not certain indeed that we have a lot of flexibility.On the contrary, discussing a global climate program for reducing emissions should be the major content of discussions for the presidential election of 2022.

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[1] HCP: High Commission for Planning

[2] OPECST: Parliamentary office for evaluating scientific and technological choices

[3] AIEA: International Atomic Energy Agency

[4] AIE: International Energy Agency

[5] Small modular reactors (in English: Small Modular Reactors, or SMR) are a category of fission nuclear reactors, size and power lower than those of conventional reactors, made in factory and transported to their site siteTo be installed.

[6] GEN-4 : Les réacteurs nucléaires de génération IV (ou 4^e génération) sont un ensemble de conceptions de réacteurs nucléaires actuellement à l’étude pour des applications commerciales prévues à partir de 2030

[7] The concept of "great fairing" is proposed and studied by EDF since 2008.In France, it designates a vast project to adapt and modernize nuclear power plants, aimed at lengthening their operating time.

[8] L’EPR2 est une nouvelle génération de réacteurs de 3^e génération de type EPR (Réacteur pressurisé européen).No copies have yet been built in the world.

[9] IA: Artificial Intelligence