Towards the end of gasoline vehicles 2035, electric year

In 2035, the sale of new gasoline-powered cars will be prohibited in Quebec and Canada. A dozen other countries in the world will do the same between 2025 and 2035. Is this the beginning of the end of the reign of oil? A dossier by Hélène Baril and André Dubuc

The beginning of the end for gas-powered cars

Fourteen years old. This is the time we have left to negotiate the shift towards the electrification of passenger cars.

That's not much, considering that according to the most recent data, only 11% of cars sold in Quebec have an electric motor – including plug-in hybrids, which consume gas.

But it's also a lot. The disappearance of new gas-powered cars could happen well before the 2035 deadline, according to Simon-Pierre Rioux, president and founder of the Quebec Electric Vehicle Association.

The group that promotes electromobility predicts that 100% of new cars sold in Quebec will be electric by 2030, five years before the deadline set by governments.

“From 2025, the cost of electric cars will be on par with that of gasoline-powered cars,” explains Simon-Pierre Rioux, based on projections published by firms such as KPMG and Bloomberg. From then on, it will go very quickly. »

Consumers won't flock to the latest gasoline-powered models in the years before their sale is banned, he said. On the contrary.

No one is going to want to buy them because their resale value will decrease and gasoline will be more and more expensive, because we will produce less of it.

Simon-Pierre Rioux, President of the Association of Electric Vehicles of Quebec

The supply of electric cars should be there, because most major car manufacturers are investing heavily to go electric.

GM, for example, plans to stop producing polluting vehicles in 2035 and Ford expects half of its global sales to be fully electric by 2030.

Number of electric vehicles in Quebec, current and projected

* Objective of the Quebec government

Sources: SAAQ, Statistics Canada, AVEQ

Financial support from governments for the purchase of an electric vehicle will no longer be necessary, believes Simon-Pierre Rioux. It could gradually decrease from 2027 and be directed towards the installation of charging stations.

As gasoline sales decline, revenue from gasoline taxes will dry up and governments will have to find the money for road maintenance elsewhere. In Quebec, the road network is financed in part by vehicle registration fees, which bring in $1.3 billion a year, and by gasoline taxes, which generate annual revenue of $2.3 billion.

The shortfall could be made up by an increase in registration fees, by a kilometer tax or by a combination of the two. Simon-Pierre Rioux would prefer that we make road users pay. “With a gadget installed on the car, for example, it would be possible to charge motorists according to the distance travelled,” he suggests.

It is also the choice of Pierre-Olivier Pineau, holder of the Energy Chair at HEC Montréal. According to him, such a tax would have the advantage of making users pay. The technology also makes it possible to modulate it according to the time of use and the type of vehicle.

In Saskatchewan, the government did not worry too much. He imposed a $150 annual levy on owners of electric vehicles who contribute to the wear and tear on the province's roads but do not pay for their maintenance. This tax, in effect since October ¹ , could be followed by an additional levy at charging stations. The province does not offer any incentives for the purchase of an electric car.

From 4.4% to 11%

The share of new electric vehicles sold in Quebec is growing strongly; it fell from 4.4% of all vehicles sold in 2020 to 11% as of June 30, 2021.

2.3%

Share of electric vehicles on Québec roads, i.e. 110,714 out of a grand total of 4.9 million registered cars and light trucks.

Until 2050, at least

Not everyone is so optimistic about the replacement of gas-powered cars with electric vehicles by 2035. CAA-Quebec, for example, believes that we should not expect a revolution.

As the end of gasoline car sales only affects new vehicles, the used car market will remain alive. The lifespan of a car is estimated at between 15 and 20 years, which could delay the disappearance of gas-powered cars from our roads until 2050, according to CAA-Quebec.

The vice-president of the Canadian Fuels Association, Carol Montreuil, also predicts that the demand for gasoline will not disappear in 2035. "We forget that the ban only applies to passenger transport and not to trucks,” he says.

Taking into account used cars that will continue to run on gasoline, Carol Montreuil estimates that 75 to 80% of the current consumption of petroleum products in Quebec will still be there at the turn of 2050.

The decrease in sales will still be difficult to cash in the industry, according to Carol Montreuil.

Refineries will be weakened and it is to be expected that a large number of service stations will close, especially in the regions.

Carol Montreuil, Vice President of the Canadian Fuels Association

Disabilities that will disappear

Norman Hébert has been selling cars for over 40 years. The president and CEO of multi-brand dealership Groupe Park Avenue believes that the transition to electric cars will go faster in Quebec than elsewhere because of the government assistance offered, the availability of charging stations and the relatively low cost electricity.

The interest of motorists for electric is there, he notes every day. “What blocks is that there is not a lot of supply. People are also concerned about the range of vehicles and charging facilities,” he says.

Currently, high-end electric cars, like the Tesla, have a range of around 500 kilometers and their fast-charging stations can give them an additional 150 kilometers in five minutes. It is reasonable to think that this performance will be generalized in future models that will be marketed by most manufacturers.

By 2035 and even before, the current handicaps will therefore have disappeared. “Manufacturers are announcing the marketing of 60 to 70 new all-electric models over the next few years,” underlines Norman Hébert.

Groupe Park Avenue is preparing for the electric shift, but it will continue to sell used gasoline cars, which will still be there for a long time, perhaps another generation, risks Norman Hébert.

Demand for used cars should continue, for those who, for all sorts of reasons, are unwilling or unable to go electric.

Collectors and enthusiasts of large powerful engines, there will always be, according to him. “We have already experienced this a bit with diesel-powered cars, which manufacturers have no longer offered in Canada since 2018, but which are still selling,” he illustrates.

In fact, what awaits the gasoline car is reminiscent of the fate of vinyl records, believes Sarah Houde, CEO of the Propulsion Quebec cluster, which is working to make Quebec a world leader in electromobility. "It will become collector's items over time," she says.

Like many others, Sarah Houde does not believe that the strengths of Quebec and the popularity of electric cars are such as to encourage the arrival of assembly plants in the province. "We don't put any energy on it," she said.

“For Quebec, the market for batteries and large vehicles such as buses or trains is much more buoyant. »

With the collaboration of André Dubuc, La Presse

What will change in our cities

The popularity of electric vehicles is gaining momentum. A real revolution awaits us by 2035, which will necessarily change our lifestyles and shape our environment.

To get an idea of ​​what the future holds, we can observe the evolution of the situation in Norway where already 85% of cars sold are electric models (this includes plug-in hybrids).

There, the package has been put in place to convert the faithful: reserved lanes, free tolls, zero-emission districts, reserved or even free parking; so many ideas that can be reproduced in Quebec.

"In Norway, we especially noticed the positive environmental impact," says Simon-Pierre Rioux, founding president of the Association of Electric Vehicles of Quebec (AVEQ). We noticed the decrease in air pollution in the big cities. There are fewer cases of asthma. There are fewer people hospitalized because of respiratory problems caused by air pollution. »

For now, Quebec's strategy can be summed up above all in granting rebates on the purchase of automobiles and taking advantage of the low cost of electricity compared to gasoline.

But some concrete measures already exist, such as free tolls on highways 25 and 30, free passage on certain ferries, permission to use reserved lanes and exemption from additional registration fees for vehicles of 40,000 $ to $75,000. Other incentives will no doubt follow.

Challenges for the supply network

From the outset, the electrical infrastructure will have to be completely redesigned, which will mark the territory.

Refueling at the gas station will gradually be replaced by refueling at home at night and at work during the day, which is currently the case for 90% of EVs, according to Mr. Rioux.

Outside major centres, public terminals will be installed near local services such as shopping centres, shopping streets and cafés and restaurants.

"Placing a charging station in a service station in the middle of nowhere and asking electric motorists to wait thirty minutes or more is not inviting," says Martin Vaillancourt, director general of the National Regrouping of Regional Councils. of the environment of Quebec (RNCREQ). The regional councils are interested in the electrification of transport and collaborate in projects for the regionalization of charging infrastructures.

In densely populated urban areas, the development of a public network is inevitable to serve motorists who do not have a reserved parking space.

“Cities are expected to install charging stations equipped with fast terminals that fill up in 45 minutes or street lamps with charging sockets,” says Mr. Rioux.

Avenues that raise integration issues. The aesthetics of the bollards has been criticized in the past by industrial designer Michel Dallaire, creator of street furniture for the Quartier international de Montréal.

Christian Savard, CEO of Vivre en Ville, an organization dedicated to urban development issues, dreams of an essentially underground network.

One can imagine the impact on the urban landscape if bollards had to be placed everywhere in the streets of Montreal. You can imagine the infrastructure costs to dig and then pass the current through the forest of bollards...

Christian Savard, CEO of Living in the City

Mr. Savard sees the service station of the future in underground parking lots, out of sight.

Unfortunately, the reality is likely to go through the development of equipment on the street, believes Audrey Girard, urban planner and urban designer at Lemay. To limit nuisance, it would favor the development on the street of small-sized charging stations made up of a row of a few terminals at a time. During snowfall, the spaces could be cleared of snow in priority like the bus stops.

If we want to avoid the disfigurement of the central districts, we must equip the residential complexes without delay. Real estate developer Devimco recently announced that the (106) parking spaces of its Auguste & Louis condo project, built on the former Radio-Canada lands southeast of downtown, can all be equipped with a terminal charging.

Another part of the solution involves recharging at work. Office towers began to adjust. At 1250 René-Lévesque Boulevard West, a sought-after downtown address, the 1,000-space indoor parking lot has gone from 5 to 15 terminals. A modest start, but a challenge is already looming on the horizon.

Downtown office buildings don't necessarily have the electrical capacity to charge 1,000 cars at the same time as providing power to tenants.

Raynald Lachance, Vice-President Operations at property manager BentallGreenOak (BGO)

A charging car consumes as much as a kitchen oven turned on at 350 degrees Fahrenheit, he points out.

Air quality

In addition to issues related to the power grid, what aspects of our cities will be transformed by the electric revolution?

“Much of urban smog comes from idling or stationary vehicles. It can just get better, underlines Martin Vaillancourt, of the RNCREQ. The sound environment will also improve. At low speed, 400 electric vehicles make no more noise than one, underlines Mr. Rioux, of the AVEQ.

For ^Ms. Girard, noise in the city center is caused by construction sites and emergency vehicles. "The electric vehicle will not solve everything tomorrow morning," she says. However, it sees potential around major highways.

“The approaches to motorways today are associated with elements of nuisance due to noise and pollution. In a perspective where the fleet is mainly electric, we can think that the nuisances related to the motorway will be less”, advances the associate design director at Lemay.

On the outskirts of the Métropolitain, if the spaces become less noisy and polluted, there may be potential to be glimpsed for the development of uses that we do not anticipate for the moment.

Audrey Girard, urban planner and urban designer at Lemay

The construction of schools and nurseries could then become possible, notes the town planner.

For Martin Vaillancourt, Christian Savard and Audrey Girard, however, the transformation of the urban experience involves reducing the number of cars, electric and gas-powered. If society limits itself to the electrification of cars, the impact on our lives will be limited.

“When we think back to transport in 2035, in the general objectives, we do not want to maintain the increase in individual vehicles, gasoline or electric, says ^Ms. Girard. Zero-emission neighborhoods require a reduction in the use of private cars, the deployment of electric public transport and the sharing economy, such as the Communauto electric car sharing service. »

Orchestrate charging

Current or future owners of electric vehicles need not worry, assures Hydro-Quebec: there will be enough electricity in Quebec to supply a growing fleet of electric vehicles.

But if all motorists plug in their cars at the end of the day, it will cause problems, explains France Lampron, director of transport electrification for the state-owned company. “We are preparing for that, with pilot projects to develop ways to distribute the load. »

One of these pilot projects is taking place this winter in the West Island of Montreal. The basic assumptions are as follows: motorists who use their electric car to get to work drive an average of 43 kilometers per day; the car is parked 22 hours a day and it needs two hours of charging a day. “Between 5 p.m. and 5 a.m., that gives us time to distribute the load,” emphasizes France Lampron.

Since charging is mainly done from home, homeowners will be encouraged to adopt behaviors adapted to the capacity of the electrical network, especially during winter peak periods when it is struggling to meet demand. For the moment, there are no plans for higher tariffs to discourage recharging during these periods, indicates France Lampron, “but that may come later”.

Hydro wants to set up “a portfolio of charging solutions” adapted to different needs. Customers of its Hilo home automation subsidiary, for example, will be able to automatically manage the charging of their car.

Hélène Baril, La Presse

Hecatomb in service stations?

The transition to electricity in the Quebec automotive sector will require new approaches to vehicle charging and will force service stations to redefine themselves… or disappear.

Serge Harnois' family has been selling petroleum products for 60 years. And it intends to sell it for a long time, at least until 2050.

“We adapt,” says the president and CEO of Harnois Énergies, which operates nearly 450 service stations in Quebec. His company, he says, was the first to install charging stations for electric cars and facilities for filling up with hydrogen.

As the fleet of electric cars grows, gasoline sales will decline, but they won't go away, he predicts. Gas-powered cars sold at the turn of 2035 will be there for another 15 years and there will still be trucks. “Diesel sales are growing,” he points out.

There are some 3,000 service stations in Quebec today, the majority of which offer convenience store or fast food services, according to the Régie de l'énergie.

Those that depend solely on gasoline sales, especially in the regions, will not all survive the foreseeable decrease in the volume of gasoline sales, estimates Serge Harnois.

Others located in urban areas, where the price of land is exploding, could be converted, as is already happening on the island of Montreal, where many service stations have given way to condos.

But the best locations, where there is enough space to do catering and install charging stations, are there for good, he says. They will offer everything.

The giant Couche-Tard, which currently derives nearly half of its profits from the sale of gasoline, has already begun to add charging stations for electric vehicles to its service offer and wants to increase the number of products on sale in its stores, which will be less and less convenience stores and more and more grocery stores.

Harnois Énergies plans to invest 100 million in the coming months to acquire new sites.

Our investment criteria change, we look at the size of the land, the possibility of adding services and the potential for converting the site to do other activities.

Serge Harnois, CEO of Harnois Energies

“Distributors of petroleum products want to continue,” also assures Sonia Marcotte, president and CEO of the Association of Quebec Energy Distributors. “Gasoline sales will decline, but there will be gasoline vehicles for another 10 or 15 years. Our members will diversify, she says. They have good locations, well located and known to everyone. »