The challenges of the electric car Receive the last hour alerts of the duty
One by one, car manufacturers announce to take the electric shift.It is expected that 2021 will mark a turning point with an acceleration of the growth of market share monopolized by vehicles called zero emission.The coast to be climbed, however, is steep.
The German Daimler, manufacturer of Mercedes and Smart, entered the dance on Thursday by promising investments of 40 billion euros in its transition to the whole electric before 2030, echoing the will expressed by the European Commission. Bruxelles a proposé un renforcement des normes européennes visant une réduction de 15 % des émissions de CO2 en 2025 par rapport à 2021, de 55 % en 2030, puis une interdiction de vente de voitures neuves à essence et au diesel pour 2035.
The Stellantis group, which brings together PSA (Peugeot-Citroën-Opel) and FCA (Fiat-Chrysler), talks about injecting 30 billion euros in the electrification of its ranges by 2025.Volkswagen adds to the escalation by saying that they want to sell 50 % of electric vehicles by 2030 and "almost 100 %" in 2040 in its main markets, a turn accompanied by a 73 billion euros envelope including the installation ofA network of rapid charging stations around the world.
Volvo plans to remove from its catalog by 2030 all its combustion models, including hybrids.For its part, Renault displays its determination to offer "the greenest mix on the European market in 2025", with more than 65 % of electric vehicles by 2025.
Elsewhere, GM has expressed the intention of no longer manufacturing by 2035 of "polluting emission cars", while the world number one, Toyota, plans to make in Europe 10 % of its electric and hydrogen sales from hereThere, alongside 70 % hybrids, 10 % rechargeable hybrids and 10 % petrol cars, can be read in a review made by the France-Presse agency.
The change of course is fast.Globally, Oxford Economics plans that the market share of hybrid and electric vehicles will reach this year 16 % of new vehicles sold, compared to 11 % in 2020.On the old continent, this share would exceed 30 % this year to reach 80 % in 2030, believes the research firm.This European impulse would pass the weight of hybrid and electric cars more than 40 % worldwide at the end of the decade.It would be slightly higher in Asia and China, but under 30 % in the United States (compared to 10 % planned in 2021), although the plan of the American president, Joe Biden, could move this target upwards.
Sinuous road
Behind these apparently beautiful projections is looming a rather winding road.If only in Europe, where the gap created by the price difference between electricity and their petrol and diesel equivalents is felt despite the presence of generous incentive programs.There is a fracture in the affordability between central and eastern Europe and Western Europe, as well as a North-South fracture, amplified by the per capita income differences, concluded in July the director general ofthe association of European automobile manufacturers.
Oxford Economics recalls, moreover, that the main challenge remains the production costs of the battery, which can count for 30 % of the cost price.But "we expect a parity with the cost of making an internal combustion vehicle in mid-2020, with the cost of the battery going from US $ 130 per kWh to less than US $ 100".
Major challenges
Once this obstacle has been removed, the inclination of the coast to be assembled to reach the carboneutrality levels respecting the parameters of the Paris Agreement will not be attenuated.Taking the example of Canada, the C Institute.D.Howe indicated this week that 7.7 million zero emission vehicles should be on the roads in 2030, the equivalent of 30 % of the total vehicle, if Ottawa wants to achieve its objectives for reducing GHG emissions in the sector oftransport.We had 202,000 last December.
Among the other major challenges, the geopolitical analyst of the National Bank Angelo Katsoras brought out in an analysis published in June that the construction of an ordinary electric car requires six times more minerals than an internal combustion motor car.Not to mention the competition from other energy transition projects.For example, the construction of a wind farm on earth engages nine times more resources than a gas plant, he illustrated.
Among the main obstacles, the International Energy Agency calculated that it takes an average of 16 years to evolve from the stage of discovery to that of mining production.To the list is added the domination of China in the treatment of the necessary minerals.“Chinese companies also have considerable control over the mining of these minerals, even if the reserves are largely found in other countries […] if the United States cannot make significant progress to enhanceTheir own national supply capacities, the ecological transition will imply for them in practice to renounce their oil and gas independence to become dependent on China for essential products, "writes the analyst.
There remains the origin of the battery supply source and the lack of scientific consensus as to the climate of the vehicle climate to zero emission when all of its life cycle is taken into account.