Why the future electric mix will cost less by reviving nuclear, according to RTE

As the presidential campaign advances, the debates ignite the country's energy future.Because the time of press decisions if France actually wants to reach carbon neutrality by the middle of the century, as it was engaged in 2019.Result: while Emmanuel Macron paved the way for a revival of the atom during his television speech on November 9, supporters of renewables and nuclear power on the impact of the various existing low carbon technologies.And integrate a major component in the equation: that of their cost.

Resolutely anti-nuclear, the candidate EELV, Yannick Jadot, thus repeats the envy that electricity from the fission is "much more expensive than that resulting from renewable energies".As for Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI), he regularly denounces the cost of "150 billion euros" of the "Grand Carénage", the EDF plan to extend and ensure the safety of power plants.

But the manager of the RTE electricity network seems to assert the opposite.Among its six prospective scenarios published in October "Futures Energetics 2050", the most competitive would in fact be the one who integrates the most nuclear.In other words, in the vast majority of the configurations studied, a rapid launch scenario of new reactors (in addition to renewables) would be less expensive than a nuclear exit trajectory with massive solar and wind development.This difference would even amount to almost ten billion euros per year, according to the reference indicators.

A gain in competitiveness of renewable energies

And yet, the costs of the new nuclear would remain generally higher than those of renewable energies in 2050, RTE advances.In detail, "at the cost of identical capital", the first would be understood (excluding connection) between 60 and 85 €/MWh, against 30 to 45 €/MWh for the latter.Indeed, at the same time as the explosion of costs of EPRs, those of photovoltaic solar have already decreased by 85% in ten years, according to Irena (International Agency for Renewable Energies), and "there is a consensus onThe fact that the decline will continue, ”specifies Thomas Veyrenc, executive director in charge of strategy, prospective and RTE assessment.

The costs of the wind, both earthly and placed at sea, should also bend.The trend is already marked: while the first offshore parks allocated in the early 2010s reached 130 to 150 euros per MWH, this number dropped to 44 euros / MWh for the call for tenders of the Dunkirk project, whose settingin service is scheduled for 2026.

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Complete system costs

An observation which gives a priori reason to Yannick Jadot, and which the candidate also puts forward.But for RTE, this "is not enough to conclude on the economic relevance" of an all renewable production.Because the calculation is based in particular on the LCOE ("updated cost of the energy produced"), an indicator of the Lazard bank widely used, but which in fact does not integrate the costs of the system associated with each technology."This amounts to calculating the price of an isolated solar panel.However, it adapts according to the presence of other means, ”notes Thomas Veyrenc.

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To fill these shortcomings, RTE claims to have examined the "complete costs of the system" for each of the scenarios, in a "bottom-up" analysis including the production, flexibility and network chain, and taking into account the charging rates.

The price of intermittentness

And these additional costs will be "greater in the scenarios with a very strong part in renewable energies".Firstly because the latter intermittently produce, and France does not yet have a competitive solution to storage of long -term electricity.Result: the higher their share, the more the needs in thermal power plants to ensure the balance between supply and demand during intermittent periods will be large.Ideally, these would eventually turn "green" to "green" gas, but the cost of this solution "could be much higher" than the natural gas available today, specifies Thomas Veyrenc.

On the storage of electrons to spread consumption, RTE retained a division by two of the costs of the batteries by 2050.But this figure remains very uncertain: if their price has dropped in recent years with the transition to scale, and will continue to decrease, the very strong demand in critical materials (cobalt, lithium) "could cause tension on supply,So an increase ”, advances Olivier Houvenégel.Conversely, RTE incorporates in its model the possibility of a strong technical progress, even a technological rupture, which would greatly improve the yields and lower costs.

In the same way the network needs will be "significantly higher" in the scenarios with a large share in renewable energy, adds RTE.In question, in particular, the connection of wind farms at sea, which would become "one of the main components of network costs", but also that of photovoltaic panels and land wind turbines.

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Scenarios with nuclear, more competitive

It is therefore by integrating all of these flexibility and network costs that RTE arrives at the conclusion that the costs are "generally lower" in the construction scenarios of new nuclear reactors.And this, even if the EPR2 bill remained as high as that of the Flamanville EPR (around 12 million euros), which should not happen due to standard effect and economies of scale.And in all configurations, RTE claims to have taken into account all the cost components throughout the life cycle of power plants, from long -term waste management to waste, including maintenance and dismantling.

The fact remains that, in all configurations, the full cost of the electrical system, today of 45 billion euros per year, should increase between 60 and 80 billion euros, due to the change in model and electrification of the electrification of the electrification of the electrification ofuses.And according to the support regime of French public authorities to the new nuclear, or European via green taxonomy, production rates could vary.

But economic competitiveness is not the only criterion that must refer decision -making, recalls Thomas Veyrenc.Because while the six scenarios all present possible ways towards carbon neutrality (even if they involve technological and feasibility bets), the final choice of the exit or not of nuclear power will ultimately be of a political political order.And promises to generate long debates.

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