What does an advertisement, 20% energy savings?
The press likes "little sentences" and "flash ads", what politicians know and serve him in abundance.Staying in the energy field in Morocco, it is clear that by announcing, without the necessary downsides, that "Morocco will make 20% energy savings by 2030", Leïla Benali, Ministercurrent (RNI affiliate) of the energy transition, has taken up the same mode of "flash communication" as Mr.Aziz Rabbah, ex-minister (PJD affiliate).
We do not know if the sentence was truncated or not but the most cautious journalists have refrained from commenting on this kind of advertisements and the ordinary of Moroccan citizens today, educated but neophyte, to wonder if the consumption of'Energy of Morocco will not drop in 2030!
This kind of "flash announcements" arouses all kinds of reACtions ranging from skepticism to the figure to the prowess of the country without counting those that it only inspires.Unable to do anything for the latter, it might be good to make up for induction in error that the announcement manifests: "Morocco will make 20% energy on 2030".
Readers with a little bit of economic culture are the most skeptical because they know that developing countries have energy consumption correlated with their income and that, from this point of view, such an announcement would rather be a badnews. Quel est donc le truc qui se cAChe derrière cette annonce ?
The percentages are supposed to simplify life, but you still have to know what the 100% refers?It is not easy to talk about percentage of energy savings in a country whose consumption is continuously increasing.Just as we speak of global warming compared to the overall average temperature from 1960 to 1990, in countries like ours, we can only speak of energy saving in relation to a reference evolution "ifEverything had continued as before ".In Morocco, it is legitimate to plACe this "reference evolution" at the period before 2008 (1977 to 2007) since it was there that the energy strategy was established as well as the first scenarios by 2030.
Les agrégats sont tirés de plusieurs sources officielles[i], [ii], [iii], [iv], [v], [vi].
How to make false news with real information
Figure 1 shows the evolution of the energy consumption of Morocco (in blue) during the last forty years as well as that of the average of its annual growth during the previous five years (in red).Total energy is in fACt previously calculated by converting all the energy products consumed in the kingdom in tons of oil equivalent via their calorific power or their conversion fACtor, as the case may be.This total energy therefore includes electricity which is a part of this whole.
Figure 1 Evolution of total energy consumed in Morocco, in thousands of tonnes of oil equivalent
A Morocco which would make "20% energy savings by 2030" would see its energy consumption down where the blue circle is located, which would occur, only to God please, if theMorocco was undergoing a disaster ... and there would really be nothing to come and go!There, we can see that if the ministers do not have time to specify their thoughts and that the press does not bother to understand to explain, we are with false news that circulates, official moreover!
Restore reality
In a previous article [VII], we have shown that our energy and electricity consumption are correlated with our income and that it is enough to make plausible hypotheses of economic growth, to predict an ACceptable evolution of the consumption ofenergy or electricity.
La Figure 2 montre l’évolution dans le temps de nos consommations réelles d’énergie et d’électricité (cercles noirs) ainsi que deux modèles d’évolution (courbes noires en trait plein ou en pointillés) extrapolés à 2030 avec les mêmes hypothèses d’évolution future du PIB que dans l’article précité7 :
Figure 2 Evolutions of total energy and net electricity annually called (in blACk) and energy gains compared to "reference evolution" [1977, 2007] (in red)
Ainsi donc, on voit bien que « le Maroc va faire 20% d’économies d’énergie à l’horizon 2030 » est complètement inexACt à moins, peut-être, d’affubler ces économies d’un adjectif, comme « économies d’énergie relatives« , ce qui resterait encore vague mais qui aurait le mérite de ne pas être inexACt.
So is that what we designate by gain of energy efficiency?
No, in the economic sense, energy efficiency is the ability of a country to create wealth for given energy consumption.It is therefore the country's income report (in constant monetary units) to the energy it consumes which can be the whole energy or electrical energy alone.It is better to refer to electricity deliveries ensured annually by the Onee-Be which are a better proxy of the final consumption of electrical energy because the net electricity called depends too much on the evolution of transport and distribution yields[VIII].Gaining energy efficiency means generating more wealth with the same energy consumed.
Figure 3 shows the average variation (blue curves) of the ACtual annual (blue diamonds) of the energy (left graph) and electricity (right graph) as a function of GDP.As for the two red curves, which refer to the right scales of the two graphs, they show the average variation in energy efficiency (left graph) and electrical efficiency (left graph).
Annual GDP of the last forty years (in constant DH of 2007) is more than 99% overall correlated by blue curves with a punctual error not exceeding 5%.
Figure 3 Variation of the GDP as a function of energy (left) and delivery of the ONEE (right)
The "U" form of the red curves of Figure 3 shows two phases:
Conclusion
Using sentences that are too short to designate complex things leads to inACcurate information that a journalistic comment can only emphasize or distort.
By Amin Bennouna (sindibad@uca.AC.my)
Références[i] Ministère de l'Energie, des Mines et de l'Environnement du Royaume du Maroc, Portail des statistiques de l'Observatoire Marocain de l'Energie, https://www.observatoirenergie.ma/data/[ii] Direction des Etudes et des Prévisions Financières du Ministère de l'Economie, des Finances et de la Réforme de l'Administration du Royaume du Maroc, Notes de Conjoncture, http://depf.finances.gov.ma/etudes-et-publications/note-de-conjoncture/[iii] Bank Almaghrib, Revue de la Conjoncture Economique, http://www.bkam.ma/Publications-statistiques-et-recherche/Documents-d-analyse-et-de-reference/Revue-de-la-conjoncture-economique[iv]Rapports Annuels de l’Office National de l’Electricité et l’Eau Potable, http://www.one.ma/[v] Annuaires statistiques du Maroc, Haut Commissariat au Plan, les anciennes versions en format papier sont disponibles à la Bibliothèque Nationale et les plus récentes en format électronique sont ACcessibles sur le site https://www.hcp.ma/downloads/Annuaire-statistique-du-Maroc-version-PDF_t11888.html[vi] Banque Mondiale, Données du Maroc, https://donnees.banquemondiale.org/pays/maroc?view=chart[vii] Amin Bennouna, "Après 11% en 2019, les économies d’énergie relatives pourraient atteindre 30% en 2030", Webmagazine EcoActu du 12 Juillet 2021, https://www.ecoACtu.ma/economies-denergie-relatives-atteindre-30-en-2030/[viii] Amin BENNOUNA, "Les 'pertes non-techniques' dans le réseau électrique de l’ONEE engloutissent plus que l’électricité solaire produite à Ouarzazate !", Webmagazine EcoActu, 28 février 2020, https://DOI.ORG/10.13140/RG.2.2.34602.98248