Towards a surge in electricity demand
It is indeed a new "electric revolution" described by the annual report of the International Energy Agency
"The electricity sector is experiencing its most spectacular transformation since its creation over a century ago", the International Energy Agency has decided to treat the formula in its annual report onglobal energy perspectives.Electricity demand will explode, especially in developing countries, which will require considerable efforts to adapt infrastructure.
In a scenario which takes into account the commitments of the different countries and the technological developments in progress, the institution expects growth of more than 25% of the total energy demand by 2040, it will be partly absorbed byElectricity whose demand must jump by 60% and reach almost a quarter of final energy demand on this horizon (compared to 19% today), at the expense of coal and oil."Electricity consumption believes twice as fast as overall energy consumption," said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, during a conference on presentation of the report to London, taken up by the Agency FranceHurry
Electric car and air conditioning
This demand comes from the multiplication of digital devices, but also electric buses in emerging countries and electric cars in other markets.Almost 90% of the growth in electricity demand comes from developing countries, with the explosion of demand for electric cars in China but also for air conditioning in hot countries.The AIE looks at the sources of electricity production to meet this demand: wind and photovoltaic solar must experience the strongest growth.All renewable energies (including hydroelectricity) represent 70% of the increase in production capacity.On this horizon, the share of coal in electricity production should have dropped to around 25% against 40% today.The respective shares of gas (20%) and nuclear (10%) should remain almost stable.
"The future is electric"
But this is where the infrastructure work will have to be considerable: “With greater variability of the offer, the electrical systems will have to make flexibility the basis of future electricity markets so that the lights remain on", warns the aie."Many countries in Europe but also Mexico, India and China will need a level of flexibility which has never existed before on such a scale", the AIE is advancing a series of tracks: market reform, investments in the network and interconnections, technological improvements with intelligent meters.Very clearly, the challenge will only be taken up with a breakthrough on storage conditions and batteries, especially in the scenario of electricity which can be produced mainly by complex microphones to be piloted, and no longer giant power plants, scenario favored by a producer like Engie.In Europe, experts have been alerting for years to the weaknesses of the network and interconnections between countries, without significant investments they will be submitted to very rough test.
The AIE finally considers a scenario called "the future is electric", imagining a much more proactive development of the uses of electricity for mobility and heating, as well as a much faster progression of access through theworld.The demand for electricity would then increase by 90% (instead of 60%) by 2040, an additional level equivalent to twice the current electrical demand from the United States.At this stage, the agency does not hide that we would pill on the means of production, transport and interconnection.
The "electricity fairy" appears in any case much more as a solution than as a problem in the environmental problem and the AIe insists on the gain in terms of CO2 emissions that its accelerated development would represent.A report that could perhaps modify somewhat the perception of the progression of electrical demand in developed countries and particularly in France where the electricity transport network provides for stability of demand, new uses being counterbalanced by gainsfrom energy efficiency.Scenario that EDF challenges which requires new nuclear capacities to deal with a new request.The response will be political, through the multi -year Energy program, the date of publication of which is postponed from week to week.The Aie reminds us that in the matter, time turns very quickly