The International Energy Agency calls on governments to accelerate Find the actors & information that will help you Newsletter know to act

The picture drawn by the International Energy Agency (IEA) is not all bleak: in 2020, even as economies bent under the weight of the blockages linked to the health crisis, energy sources renewables such as wind or solar photovoltaic continued to grow rapidly and electric vehicles set new sales records. "The emergence of this new energy economy is the product of a virtuous circle of political action and technological innovation, and its momentum is now supported by falling costs", even rejoices the Agency. In most markets, solar photovoltaic or wind power represents the cheapest source of electricity generation. Clean energy is becoming a major new area for investment and employment as well as a dynamic arena for international collaboration and competition. And yet.

Stubborn status quo

The rapid but uneven economic recovery from the Covid-induced recession last year is straining parts of the current energy system, causing prices to rise sharply in the natural gas, coal and electricity markets . Despite all the progress made, 2021 sees a significant rebound in the use of coal and oil, making it the second largest annual increase in CO₂ emissions in history. At the same time, public spending on sustainable energy in stimulus packages has mobilized only around a third of the investment needed to get the energy system back on track. Result: we are moving away from the IEA's baseline scenario of net zero emissions by 2050, published in May 2021, which maps out a narrow but achievable roadmap for a stabilization of the rise in global temperatures at 1.5°C. global temperatures and the achievement of other energy-related Sustainable Development Goals.

In the wall

The energy sector is responsible for nearly three-quarters of the emissions that have already raised global average temperatures by 1.1°C since pre-industrial times. At the same time, modern energy is integral to the livelihoods and aspirations of a global population that is expected to grow by some two billion people by 2050, with rising incomes driving up demand for energy services. As it stands, the global energy system is not capable of meeting these challenges.

Insufficient efforts

More than 50 countries, as well as the whole of the European Union, have committed to achieving "net zero emissions". If these are implemented in time and in full, they will begin to bend the global emissions curve, with rapid growth in electric vehicle sales and continued improvements in fuel efficiency leading to a spike in demand. around 2025. Efficiency gains would cap global energy demand after 2030. But successful pursuit of all announced commitments would mean that global energy-related CO₂ emissions would fall "only" by 40% by 2050. Governments must do much more: currently their commitments cover less than 20% of the emission reduction gap that must be closed by 2030 to maintain a trajectory of 1 .5°C at your fingertips.

Battle plan

The WEO 2021 highlights four key metrics that can help close this gap. The icing on the cake: more than 40% of the required actions are profitable, i.e. they translate into overall savings for consumers.

Accelerate on renewables: doubling of solar photovoltaic and wind deployment, major expansion of other low-emission production, including nuclear energy, massive construction of electrical infrastructure, including hydroelectric, to make the system more flexible… All of this combined with rapid coal exit. This acceleration of the decarbonisation of the electricity mix is ​​the most important lever available to political decision-makers: it closes more than a third of the emissions gap between the announced promises and the NZE.

Take action on the energy efficiency lever through increased material efficiency and behavioral changes. The energy intensity of the global economy is to decline by more than 4% per year between 2020 and 2030 in the NZE, more than double the average rate of the previous decade. Without this improvement in energy intensity, total final energy consumption in the NZE would be around a third higher in 2030, which would significantly increase the cost and difficulty of decarbonizing the energy supply.

Rapidly reduce methane emissions from fossil fuel operations. It is a key lever for limiting short-term global warming, and the most cost-effective reduction opportunities are found in the energy sector, particularly in oil and gas operations. Concerted efforts by governments and industry are essential to secure the emission reductions that close nearly 15% of the gap to the NZE.

Fostering innovation. All the technologies needed to achieve significant emission reductions by 2030 are available. But nearly half of the emissions reductions achieved in the NZE in 2050 come from technologies that are now at the demonstration or prototype stage. These are particularly important for tackling emissions from iron and steel, cement and other energy-intensive industrial sectors, and long-distance transport.

Green finance: the sinews of war

Beyond this roadmap, the agency stresses that putting the world on a 1.5°C path will also require an increase in annual investment in clean energy projects and infrastructure to almost 4 trillion by 2030. “An international catalyst is essential to accelerate capital flows in support of energy transitions and enable developing economies to chart a new low-emission development path,” she concludes. The world is not investing enough to meet its future energy needs, and uncertainties about policies and demand trajectories create a high risk of a volatile period ahead for energy markets. "The way forward is clear: a major boost in clean energy investment, across all technologies and all markets. But it has to happen quickly," warns Fatih Birol, IEA's executive director. Clear signals and guidelines from decision-makers are essential, especially when we know, as the IMF recently noted, fossil fuels benefited in 2020 from more than 6,000 billion in subsidies.

The cost of inaction

Today, global energy infrastructure is already facing increasing physical risks from climate change, underscoring the urgent need to improve its resilience. The IEA estimates that around a quarter of the world's power grids are currently facing a high risk of damaging cyclonic winds, while more than 10% of coastal generating stations and refineries are subject to severe flooding, and that a third of thermal power plants cooled with fresh water are located in areas of high water stress. And it will only get worse. Furthermore, a failure to accelerate clean energy transitions would continue to expose people to air pollution. Today, 90% of the world's population breathe polluted air, leading to over 5 million premature deaths per year. In an NZE scenario, there would be 2.2 million fewer premature deaths per year by 2030, a reduction of 40% compared to today

Opportunities

“There is an annual market opportunity well over a trillion dollars by 2050 for manufacturers of wind turbines, solar panels, lithium-ion batteries, electrolyzers and fuel cells,” insists The report. That is a size comparable to that of the current world oil market. This creates huge opportunities for businesses. Clean energy employment is set to become a very dynamic part of labor markets, with growth more than offsetting declines in traditional fossil fuel supply sectors. Even if it will be necessary to train the workforce en masse to support it in this transition. In addition to creating jobs in the renewable energy and energy grid sectors, clean energy transitions increase employment in other areas such as renovations and other improvements in the energy efficiency of buildings, the manufacturing of efficient home appliances and electric or fuel cell vehicles. A total of 13 million additional workers will be employed in clean energy and related sectors by 2030 if we stick to the scenario stemming from government pledges already made. A figure that doubles in an NZE scenario.

A date with history

The way forward is difficult and narrow, but the IEA nevertheless wants to be hopeful: "The analysis clearly describes what remains to be done over the next decade. Many of the actions described are profitable, and the costs are insignificant compared to the immense risks of inaction."

Humanity still has its destiny in its hands. Will the governments soon to be meeting in Glasgow be able to rise to the challenge?

Antoine Morlighem