The Aie wants to weigh on the COP26 with a "manual" containing different energy scenarios

Le système énergétique de demain sera « plus électrifié, plus efficace, plus interconnecté et plus propre », assure sans surprise l’Agence internationale de l’énergie (AIE) en préambule de son World Energy Outlook 2021⁽¹⁾ publié ce 13 octobre.However, she deplores the slowness of this "transformation" as well as the important rebound in world consumption of coal and oil in 2021.

Pious wishes in the face of the scenario of "real"?

Dans son nouveau World Energy Outlook, l’AIE souligne que « les pressions sur le système énergétique ne vont pas fléchir dans les décennies à venir »⁽²⁾, alors que la population mondiale pourrait croître de près de 2 milliards de personnes d’ici à 2050, avec une hausse du niveau de vie des pays en voie de développement.In other words, the energy system in its current state is incompatible with the "climate challenge".

The AIE intends to alert the decision -makers who will meet during the COP26 in Glasgow (October 31 - November 12) on the different possible paths to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector.It mainly presents 3 scenarios (per decreasing level to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2050):

Note that the AIE also refers to a fourth scenario called "Sustainable Development" in which all the commitments to reduce the announced greenhouse gas emissions are respected and which also incorporates additional short -term efforts so that savingsAdvanced reaching zero net emissions by 2050 (around 2060 for China and by 2070 at the latest for all other countries).

For the first time, the AIE is considering "a possible decline (by 2050) of global oil demand in all these scripts examined" but the moment and the speed of this decline differ very strongly from a scenario to aAnother: in the “Stated Policies” scenario, global oil demand would continue to increase by 2030 (see graph below).The peak of demand would be reached in the mid -2030s and would be followed by a very gradual decline afterwards.

4 priority measures

L’AIE met en avant 4 priority measures pour renforcer les actions de réduction des émissions de CO₂ :

In the context of an increase in energy prices, the director of IEA Fatih Birol underlines "the risk of increased turbulence for the global energy markets" and calls to "invest massively and quickly" in low carbon technologies.As a reminder, fossil fuels still counted, in 2020, for 83.1% of global energy consumption and for 61.3% of global electricity production.