Negawatt updates its vision of a carbon-free France
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Shutdown of the last nuclear reactors by 2045 at the latest, change of gear in the energy renovation of housing and tertiary buildings: presented to the public on October 26, the update of the Negawatt prospective scenario traces the path towards a carbon-neutral France in 2050 , with a reconfigured industrial device.
Unsurprisingly, the Building chapter of the new version of the Negawatt scenario focuses its fire on renovations. "Beware of small thermal gestures, uncoordinated sprinkling, which would kill the objective of carbon neutrality in 2050", warns the fluid engineer Thierry Rieser, main scriptwriter of the Building within the association which published the new version on October 26. of his prospective study. “The juxtaposition of gestures produces results half as effective as global renovations,” he recalls, citing a recent study by the Ecological Transition Agency (Ademe).
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Job neutrality for construction
The expert prescribes 800,000 low-consumption renovations per year for the next 30 years, instead of the current rate of 30,000. In new construction which would reduce its airfoil, the prospective study prioritizes wood, earth and straw. This change of gear does not upset the use of the building, which transfers part of its human resources from new to renovation.
The orientation of construction towards biosourced or geosourced supplies finds its coherence in the major innovation brought by the 2022 edition of the Negawatt scenario: the materials chapter, called Negamat.
The authors highlight an ongoing research contract with Ademe between 2018 and 2022. "To direct materials towards a circular economy, we start from downstream, that is to say consumer goods, no one buys plastic or steel, then we go back to the raw materials”, explains Emmanuel Rauzier, thermal consulting engineer for the building in charge of Negamat.
Voltage on lithium
At the end of the chain which goes through the repairability and recycling of consumer goods, the reduction in the extraction of raw materials results from a worldwide drawing right proportional to demography: the French represent 1% of the population planet, they cannot therefore claim more than 170,000 t of lithium, out of the deposit of 17 million t. At the current rate, France exceeds this quota in 2035. To break the impasse which caused Emmanuel Rauzier to spend a few sleepless nights, the scenario recommends hybrid motorization, rather than all-electric.
Negamat upsets the national industrial apparatus, with the disappearance of petrochemical platforms or the reduction of 60% in phytosanitary production. Conversely, the paper and battery industries are recovering. The methanol boom has the double advantage of capturing CO2 and making it possible to dispense with half the plastic. The loss of 6,000 jobs in one of the two steel production complexes – Fos or Dunkirk – finds its compensation in 15,000 new jobs created by the relocation of metal processing and mechanics.
Doubling of the onshore wind farm
The enrichment provided by Negamat does not overshadow the most awaited chapter of the scenario, the day after the submission of the "Energy Futures 2050" report by Réseau de Transport d'Electricité (RTE): for Negawatt, France can achieve neutrality carbon not only without nuclear power, but also with controlled growth of onshore wind power. Doubling the masts is enough, thanks to the sobriety of consumption and the increase in other renewable energies, in particular biogas from agriculture, which does not go beyond its food vocation.
The inertia shown by the French production system, with only two nuclear reactors shut down out of 58, complicated the updating of the energy forecast: "The maximum effort must be deployed in the first decade", warns Yves Marignac, head of the Nuclear and fossil energies division of the Negawatt Institute and member of the permanent group of experts with the Nuclear Safety Authority. He sees this as the translation of a “locking effect” opposed by the monopolistic operator who obtained the postponement to 2035, instead of 2025, of the objective of reducing its share of the electricity mix to 50%.
nuclear lock
Result: "We are approaching the wall with less margin, given the fact that the construction of 80% of the park was completed in less than ten years", recalls the expert. Breaking out of dependence is, according to him, common sense, with regard to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) number 7, relating to "clean and abundant energy": the atom answers it with a score of 1, against 3 for renewable energies.
To manage dismantling without a peak in gas consumption, the scenario provides for the closure of the last reactor in 2045. This maximum timeframe makes it possible to manage the end of the plants by reducing their footprint thanks to a rigorous inventory of reusable materials.
Everyone has their own costs
In passing, Yves Marignac pays tribute to RTE, which confirms the technical feasibility of 100% renewable. But the spokesperson for Negawatt's energy component disputes the additional cost of 10 billion euros per year attributed to this scenario, compared to that of a relaunch of new nuclear reactors totaling 40 MW: "This calculation is based on an assumption of consumption electrical energy", notes the expert.
He notes that RTE has retained the costs of future nuclear reactors estimated by government sources, and on the contrary used wide ranges to estimate those of renewable energies. Finally, Negawatt insists on the negative externalities of the atom: industrial risk, material balance and dangerous links between civil and military applications.
On the same subject Electric future: RTE's six scenarios
Political vision assumed
The association of 1,500 members assumes without difficulty the political framework in which its prospective studies fit: “Social justice, conviviality and solidarity serve as our guide. The 17 sustainable development goals of the United Nations form our matrix”, explains Yves Marignac, a few months before a decisive five-year term to guide France towards energy and ecological transition.
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