“In 50 years, our climate will have elements typical of the Mediterranean climate”
Expectations are high around the United Nations conference on climate change (COP26) which will bring together leaders from around the world in Glasgow from October 31 to November 12. To achieve Paris Agreement goals of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees, EU targets 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050 Does this seem feasible to you?
Lucien Hoffman. – “Carbon neutrality refers to the balance between greenhouse gas emissions of human origin – hydrocarbons represent around 80% of the energy we consume – and their absorption by natural carbon sinks (soils, the oceans) or technological – capture and sequestration of CO 2 – on a global scale. However, the capacity of the biosphere to absorb our emissions is limited: we are witnessing significant deforestation of tropical forests; in addition, forests are suffering from warming and the oceans are acidifying and warming – two effects that reduce their absorption capacity.
As for the technological solutions, they are, at best, anecdotal – in 2020, the 26 CO 2 capture installations installed in the world captured 40 million tonnes of CO 2 , or less than one thousandth of global emissions. Large-scale capture and sequestration infrastructure – over a billion tonnes per year – would be equivalent to all the infrastructure in the petroleum industry today.
The absolute priority therefore remains the reduction of our emissions…
"Yes. And the order of magnitude mentioned is about 5% per year, every year, until 2050. This figure is, roughly, the known global reduction between 2019 and 2020 due to the pandemic and the confinements. This reduction would therefore have to be maintained perpetually every year. Unfortunately, 2021 is becoming a banner year in terms of rebounding because of the economic recovery. The objective remains technically feasible, but it requires a radical change in the economy, governance and behavior.
To achieve its goal of 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions nationwide by 2030, the government set sectoral targets last July. Transport is by far the most important emission factor in Luxembourg (61% in 2020). The decline is already well under way. Is the goal of reducing emissions by 57% by 2030 within reach?
"Not really, no. Everything depends on the speed of the transformation of the car fleet and therefore on the subsidies, but also on the constraints – for example, more and more cities are banning diesel cars. If we look at the figures for e-mobility, which are increasing sharply, it has nevertheless taken off well. That said, the number of cars per person in Luxembourg is much higher than in any other country… We will have to manage to change mentalities. Public transport must also improve: Luxembourg remains an essentially rural country and the small villages are not sufficiently served.
While 2020 saw the strongest growth in the installation of wind and photovoltaic power plants in the world, further increasing the share of renewables in the grid poses certain challenges.
Lucien Hoffmann, Director of the Erin Department, List
With pollution from battery production and recycling, aren't electric cars causing as many problems as they solve?
"The electric car makes it possible to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of a journey compared to a comparable thermal vehicle, and this, even when it is charged with electricity of fossil origin, since its engine train is three times more efficient at converting energy into motion. But it carries a battery of several hundred kilos, composed, depending on the technology, of lithium, nickel, manganese and cobalt, or iron and phosphate. These materials, unlike oil, gas or coal, are not dissipated with use: it is possible to recover them in used batteries. But the demand for recycling must reach a sufficiently critical mass to start a large-scale sector.
Would the electrical network allow the absorption, in a hypothetical case, of a fully electrified car fleet?
“In the very opinion of Creos (manager of electricity and natural gas networks, editor's note), it could not today support the simultaneous recharging of the national vehicle fleet if it were electrified. There are two main avenues: pilot charging by developing intelligent networks – smart grids – which would modulate demand so that it does not reach the capacity of the network. And reinforce the network itself, in particular the interconnections, in order to accept more power in the lines.
Building is also an important factor in emissions – the second in the country, with 20% of emissions in 2020…
“A lot of effort has to be done. When you see big projects like at Belval or at the Cloche d'Or, it's rarely good. Cities must plan a combined effort on the existing building stock and on new constructions.
How?
“The existing building stock must be renovated to improve its energy efficiency and make a transition to renewable energy sources. And new buildings must have almost zero energy consumption – which is the case in Luxembourg since, since 2017, new residential buildings must be NZEB buildings (Nearly Zero Energy Building).
Industry, which represents 6.2% of emissions, must also make its transition. The Fedil has also recently issued a number of requests to the government to facilitate its transition. Is the industry on the right track?
“In Luxembourg, these are major contributors in terms of emissions, but manufacturers are on the right track. ArcelorMittal is moving towards green steel, major issuers like Cimalux are trying to find solutions. Awareness is important at their level.
The decarbonization of industry or transport essentially depends on their transition to clean electricity. Are technologies such as wind or photovoltaic realistic to replace fossil fuels?
“While the year 2020 saw the strongest increase in the installation of wind and photovoltaic power plants in the world, further increasing the share of renewables in the network poses certain challenges. Because production must meet demand at all times, which is a difficult equation to solve when the sources depend on the weather.
The absence of wind or the presence of clouds can thus deprive the solar and wind power grid for hours or even days. For countries lucky enough to have hydroelectric plants, this is not a problem. For the others, a long-term storage solution must be found, to be deployed rapidly over the next few years, a sine qua non condition for the abandonment of fossil resources.
Today, there is no grid in the world that depends solely on solar and wind power. '100% renewable' scenarios exist. But the lessons of these scenarios are quite similar: the final electricity demand must absolutely decrease, the network must be completely renovated, whether in terms of storage or line reinforcement, and costs and social acceptability controlled.
The most impactful from a health point of view are heat waves, which lead to an increase in cases of premature death.
And the combination of heat waves and increased humidity levels threatens.
Lucien Hoffmann, Director of the Erin Department, List
Which storage solutions represent satisfactory avenues for the future?
“It's mainly the batteries. With electric vehicles, the boom has been very important in recent years. And many efforts have been made to increase their performance or reduce their weight. But the batteries are not able to store enough or long enough at the moment. A lot of research is done to optimize storage. This should go quickly: we can expect solutions within 10 or 20 years. There is also the possibility of storing the electricity produced in another form, for example in the form of hydrogen.
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The Minister of Energy, Claude Turmes (déi Gréng), presented Luxembourg's hydrogen strategy at the end of September. Is it a viable energy from an environmental point of view?
“Today, 96% of hydrogen is produced from fossil resources, half of which by steam reforming natural gas – so-called 'grey' hydrogen (the methane molecule, the main component of natural gas , which has four hydrogen atoms, is broken with high-temperature water vapor to produce hydrogen, editor's note). It is a carbon-emitting process, about 10 kilos of CO 2 per kilo of hydrogen. The other half is produced by partial oxidation of oil or gasification of coal.
Only 4% comes from electrolysis, the only potentially clean process. But it is still necessary to supply this process with low-carbon electricity. It is this last process, which consists of breaking up water molecules, which is today qualified as 'green' and on which many hopes rest.
Note that it is technically possible to produce gray hydrogen by capturing the CO 2 emitted during steam reforming and storing it: this is called 'blue' hydrogen. However, and as Luxembourg's hydrogen strategy notes, this process is not compatible with a logic of deep decarbonization, since it is still based on a fossil resource.
European electricity is today too carbon-intensive to produce hydrogen while emitting less carbon than gray hydrogen. It is therefore a priority to decarbonize our electricity. In addition, gray hydrogen is very cheap today, with a cost price of around €1/kg, while green hydrogen costs €3-6/kg depending on the price of the electricity used. – electrolysis is indeed a very energy-intensive process: it takes 50kWh to produce one kilo of hydrogen with a calorific value of 33kWh. However, with the price of gas and carbon continuing to increase, and that of electricity expected to decrease in the long term, green hydrogen could be competitive within 10 or 20 years.
The government opposes nuclear energy and calls for the closure of the French power plant at Cattenom, located on the border. But isn't nuclear power an effective solution for decarbonizing?
“If we look only in relation to climate objectives, it is obviously an interesting technique. But, in the overall analysis, we must not lose sight of the other aspects, in particular the whole aspect concerning safety and waste management, which nevertheless represent significant risks.
For countries that want it, nuclear fission is compatible with climate objectives. It is a controllable source, non-renewable, but very energy-dense (a 7g uranium pellet contains as much energy as a ton of coal) and which has already proven itself by offering France or Sweden the most carbon-free electricity in Europe.
Luxembourg is not spared by global warming. It reached +1.6°C in the country compared to pre-industrial levels, the Ministry of the Environment recently recalled – more than the +1.1°C recorded globally. Why?
“Air temperatures on the surface of the planet are not uniform due to geographic diversity. Oceans and continents, plains and mountains, ice caps and deserts all show different rates of warming. It is expected that the long-term warming of the continental areas, therefore also of Luxembourg, is higher than the oceanic warming.
How is this global warming materializing in our region?
“In 50 years, our climate will have elements typical of the Mediterranean climate. In addition, extreme events will be more intense and more frequent as global warming increases.
What extreme events are we talking about concretely?
“The most impactful from a health point of view are heat waves which lead to an increase in cases of premature death. And the combination of heat waves and increased humidity levels threatens. Even a modest global warming could thus expose large fractions of the population to an unbearable heat stress.
On the rain side, if the annual variations should a priori remain low, the seasonal variations will become more marked. This means more rain in winter – therefore more risk of flooding – and less rain in summer, and therefore more risk of drought. In addition, the summer seasons are likely to be marked by meteorological episodes conducive to the appearance of particularly abundant and intense rains on a local scale, going so far as to cause flash floods with their share of considerable material damage. Phenomena rarely observed in our regions, such as tornadoes – as in Bascharage in 2019 – could then become more frequent.
The size of the territory means that we are limited as to what we can implement.
The country is for example too small to create value chains around recycling.
This approach should be considered at the level of the Greater Region.
Lucien Hoffmann, Director of the Erin Department, List
Is Luxembourg still on track to achieve its climate goals?
“It will be very difficult. The size of the territory means that we are limited as to what we can implement. The country is for example too small to create value chains around recycling. This approach should be considered at the level of the Greater Region. We also import our energy (85% of electricity is imported for example, editor's note), but also many products, starting with food. Without compensation, it is therefore difficult to envisage achieving the objectives. But compensation measures are taking place outside the territory, via funding.
Is the financial sector, the main driver of the national economy, an effective lever for meeting our commitments?
“With the compensation measures, what we cannot do in Luxembourg, we can do elsewhere. For example by financing the reforestation of an area, which makes it possible to fix CO 2 . Luxembourg is also investing in wind turbines in the Baltic Sea.
In these cases, investment funds can play an important role. However, there are specialized funds in Luxembourg in this area. And the country is one of the leaders in all that is green finance, in particular with the Luxembourg Green Exchange (LGX) of the Stock Exchange.
Can we conceive that science provides the ultimate solutions to the climate crisis?
“Technology alone is not going to save us. A change in our way of life is essential. However, many compatible climate decisions are also beneficial for us: leaving the car in the garage to take the bike or the bus, reducing your meat consumption, trying your hand at gardening, learning to repair instead of throwing it away, buying second-hand...
Moreover, historically, very few new technologies have allowed a reduction in energy consumption: thermal cars have never been so efficient – yet the demand for oil is skyrocketing, because improving engines has made it possible to build heavier cars. It is therefore very difficult to bet on a technological improvement alone without also addressing its use. It is a paradox that absolutely must be resolved at a time of climate emergency.”
This article was written for the November magazine edition of Paperjam published on October 28, 2021.
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