France's electric future: nuclear, renewable energies… What are RTE's scenarios?

Essential development of renewables but also economic advantage to build new nuclear reactors: the manager of the French electricity network RTE presented on Monday its main conclusions on the future of the system by 2050, in full debate before the presidential election.

The thick report, launched in 2019 and on an unprecedented scale in France and Europe, should comfort supporters of nuclear power, because it concludes that, from a strictly economic point of view, there is still a cheaper way than relying on only renewable energies to achieve carbon neutrality by the middle of the century, as France is committed to alongside dozens of countries.

The publication comes at a time when France's energy future is shaking up the 2022 presidential pre-campaign, with some candidates advocating a more or less rapid exit from nuclear power (ecologists or radical leftists, for example) while others (notably on the right but also in the Communist Party) are favorable to this energy. President Emmanuel Macron, favorable to nuclear power, reserves his decision for the moment on the launch of six new EPRs, this new generation reactor, the first of which is finally due to start in 2022 in Flamanville, Normandy.

Being carbon neutral in 2050 will result in a massive electrification of uses - transport, heating or industry - to the detriment of oil and natural gas. Even if total energy consumption is to fall, France will therefore consume more electricity in 2050 than today, including in the most “low-energy” scenario.

"France must simultaneously face two challenges: on the one hand to produce more electricity to replace oil and fossil gas and, on the other hand, to renew the means of nuclear production which will gradually reach their operating limit. 'by 2060,' sums up Xavier Piechaczyk, president of RTE.

Six scenarios

The French nuclear fleet, built in the 1970s to 1990s, is aging and will gradually become obsolete in the decades to come. To "enlighten the public debate", RTE presents six possible production scenarios, ranging from 100% renewable in 2050 to a "voluntary" development of nuclear power with the construction of 14 EPRs as well as small reactors. "All of these paths are possible even if some are more difficult or uncertain", judge Xavier Piechaczyk.

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These scenarios, which had already been outlined on the technological level, this time take into account the economic, environmental and societal dimension of the choices to be made.

RTE does not favor one option over another but presents “their advantages, their disadvantages, their impacts and their consequences”, stresses Xavier Piechaczyk. “Achieving carbon neutrality is impossible without a significant development of renewable energies”, emphasize the authors once again.

Thus, even the most massive nuclear development scenario will not be possible without a significant boom in renewables, with solar capacity multiplied by 7 and onshore wind multiplied by 2.5.

"Controllable cost"

But from an economic point of view, “building new nuclear reactors makes sense,” the report concludes. In fact, even if the costs of renewables have fallen sharply, solar or wind power require greater investment for the electricity networks (because they are more scattered) and for flexibility (because they do not produce continuously), with the need, for example, for more storage and additional hydrogen or biomethane thermal power plants.

So “scenarios including new nuclear reactors appear more competitive”. The difference is of the order of 10 billion euros per year between a scenario with new nuclear reactors (14 EPR) and another without, posing the postulate of the development of large renewable parks. The gap is even widening to some 20 billion per year if we compare this nuclear option to another betting on a “diffuse” development of renewables, with in particular a strong use of solar installed on roofs.

In the midst of a debate on purchasing power, RTE also concludes that “the carbon neutral electricity system can be achieved at a controllable cost”.

It would result in an increase in the cost of electricity (around 15%) but with the counterpart of the end of spending on fossil fuels to fill up the car or fill the fuel tank.