Energy transition: what place for gas and nuclear?
Assign a European "green label" to natural gas and nuclear, to help to enclose investments: this perspective makes many climate and environment defenders tick.So what place for these energies on the path of a carbon -free world?
Gas and nuclear, "clean" energies?
Le gaz émet 30% de CO2 en moins que le pétrole et moitié moins que le charbon; il pollue moins l'air ambiant (moins de soufre et d'oxydes d'azote). Mais il reste une énergie fossile, responsable d'environ 22% des émissions mondiales de CO2 en 2021, selon les estimations de l'Agence internationale de l'énergie (AIE).Its production also generates important methane leaks, ultra-heating gas.
Avantage de l'énergie nucléaire, elle n'émet pas directement de CO2.Even by analyzing its life cycle - emissions linked to the extraction of uranium or the concrete of power plants - it emits less than gas and even solar.The atom has thus increased its share in many IPCC scenarios, UN climate experts.But it carries the risk of catastrophic accidents, and the still irresolute question of long -term storage of highly radioactive waste.
"Transition" energies?
If the world wants to remain under 1.5 ° C of warming compared to the pre -industrial level, any new gas exploration project must be submitted "now," calculated the Aie.While this energy is in full boom for electricity production in Asia, the agency calls for it to be used "more effectively", and replaced in developed countries.Institutions, such as the European Investment Bank, no longer finance the projects related to this energy.
In Europe, the situations are "extraordinarily different" from one country to another, underlines Patrick Criqui, director of Research Emeritus at CNRS.In Germany, "the 100% renewable scenario imposes gas production based on gas during the transition.If they go out and nuclear and coal, they will not be able to get there without gas, "notes the energy expert.
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"This certainly does not give a very good signal because we come back to a system based on fossils.But many developments are possible, "he says: a gas power plant can be built in three years, for" a relatively limited investment ", and in the longer term," why not imagine their conversion "to hydrogengreen, as suggests the profusion of projects around this solution.
Will we however be able to build nuclear reactors quickly enough for the climate?The EPR of Flamanville, expected in 2012, is still under construction.France, which draws 70% of its nuclear power, table on EPR2 in 2035-2037."There is no guarantee that the French industrial apparatus will be able to produce EPRs under economic and satisfactory reliability conditions.It's likely, but not guaranteed, "said Patrick Criqui, for whom" you have to maintain the open nuclear option ", look at the" small "reactors (SMR) and start-ups.
100% renewable, is it possible?
"We have growing evidence that 100% electricity of renewable origin is technically possible," says Nicolas Berghmans, of the Institute of Sustainable Development (IDDRI)."But there are conditions - limit needs - and space and social acceptance constraints".
In France, the manager of the RTE electrical network produced several scenarios for carbon neutrality in 2050: all highlight the need to deploy renewables, solar, wind in particular.The hypotheses range from 100% to the renewable-nuclear duo at 50-50.But the 100% requires further developments to be experienced on a large scale, for the stability of the system (storage in particular).
To date, the world number one of renewables is Denmark (60% in annual part), thanks to strong connections with the neighbors.While an electricity boom is promised to decarbonize transport, industry, building...All projections advocate, to resolve the equation, a marked decline in global energy consumption."Energy efficiency is the first energies," Fatih Birol said on Wednesday, the director of the IEA, at the Davos forum online.However today, progress is insufficient at all levels, in the efficiency, the deployment of renewables, the decline in fossils..., regularly alerts the institution.