Climate: Empirical, scientific and institutional inventory of article

It clearly goes to climate destructiveness as other historical sequences.When it is advisable to fight a fight, the enemy is first on the side of the potential victims, and not exclusively on the side of the designated opponent, human or non-human.The first enemies of the Nazis were indeed the strategic incompetence and obstinacy of the corporal Hitler.On the French side, the first enemies were the incompetence of the staff and the chronic defeatism of Pétain, including when the bulk of Hitler's troops was in Poland.Etc.We are not strictly speaking at war with the climate, but must nevertheless fight a fight with multiple facets against climate change: we must indeed change the consumption habits that led us to a situation that turns into a nightmare, fightAgainst economic interests and solidarity technical systems of these habits, adapt as much as possible to a world that changes very quickly, etc..However, gigantic, economic and political forces in the primary, mobilize to persuade us of doing nothing: in the name of the economy, as if a violent climate was compatible with our economies;In the name of punitive ecology, an foolish expression if any;in the name of the refusal of the dictatorship or green socialism;In the name of the magic of techniques;etc.We are more precisely witnessing a collusion between powerful economic interests on the one hand and, on the other, a desire for diffuse denial, rising populist forces, capable of countering any ecological and effective political breakthrough.

It goes without saying that I will not answer on this blog to the endless climato-skeptics which are unleashed with arguments more stupid than the others, more or less matched in bad faith.And often of grotesque arrogance.

Where are we ?

Suffice to say that in some years the climatic deal has changed deeply.Things even run in the nightmare.From distant - the famous end of the century and its average temperature auscued by the IPCC -, climate change has become contemporary, painfully tangible to our senses.Great trends such as they emerge from the models, we have passed in a few years, without always understanding it, to the recurring and trendy news of extreme events, more and more extreme.When a team of Météo France climatologists in 2017 appeared a study providing for the East of France at the end of the Maxima century at 50, even 55 ° [1], no one truly took it seriously.Yet quickly, temperature spikes, with a global increase of just over 1 °, begin to get closer.A small village in Hérault experienced a maximum of 46 ° at the end of June, 2019, 43 ° in the Paris region at the end of July of the same year.And obviously the 49.6 ° of Lytton, at the northern latitude of Vancouver would have appeared absurd a few years ago to most climate scientists.Urban temperatures at 50 ° and more are no longer exceptional in India or around the Persian Gulf.And we recently approached these values in the USA or Spain.To which are of course the other types of extreme events such as mega-fires in Australia or California, large-scale floods like those consecutive to Cyclone Harvey in the USA in 2017, with landslides and other flows ofMud never experienced as in Japan or at the moment in Germany, the waves of drought and other cyclones.Or even the passages from hot to cold as this spring in France, no less devastating for cultures.And it will be necessary to add to it in a few decades the countries affected by phenomena of heat-humidity accumulation saturating the corporal thermal regulation capacities, and condemning in less than 10 minutes to death without the possibility of drier or less hot refuge.

However, it is these phenomena that both warn us of the current climate change and whose recurrence will make life on earth, and first and foremost agriculture, more and more random.They are therefore the interface par excellence between climate change and we.However, it is not easy to apprehend them from the main trends released by the models.The fact remains that their violence and their recurrence depend on the average temperature on the surface of the earth, on the energy it encloses.Again, they are the ones who affect us, touch us and who have highly destructive consequences.We therefore understand the concern of climate scientists made manifest by recent leaks about the next IPCC report.

Things go so quickly that it also becomes inappropriate, as pointed out by the climatologist Christophe Cassou, despite the statistical reality of the climate, to assess the change on averages from 10 to 30 years.Recall that the temperature on ground on the ground has increased by 1 ° in the past 40 years, and that the phenomenon accelerates, in proportion to our past and current emissions.To understand this evolution, it is better to count on the annual averages being linked to end by no longer falling backwards from a certain threshold.The trend is then highly visible.If as the Met Office provides, we have 40 % chance of having a warmer year of 1.5 ° vis-à-vis the pre-industrial period before 2025, we can then expect to live a particularly yeardramatic., followed by many others.As for the French model of the IPSL, it reaches the advent of years at least 2 ° more, from the start of the 2040s decade.Recall that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is now 420 ppm, which is equivalent to the value that prevailed 4.5 million years ago, in Pliocene, with a higher average temperature of 2 to3 degrees in relation to our pre -industrial values.The next decades are already in store for us and extreme events.

What institutional context?

Faced with this situation which has become perilous, at least for those who still know how to rely on facts, it is clear that the institutional context changes.The European Environment Agency indeed calls for a form of decrease [2].The International Energy Agency invites you to no longer exploit new fossil deposits [3].The Dutch Supreme Court had distinguished itself in the Urgenda case, demanding that the government increase its objective of reducing greenhouse gases.Recently a Dutch court has ordered Shell to reduce its emissions by 45 % within 10 years [4].In May the Constitutional Court of Karlsruhe imposed on the federal government to spend less than 55 at least 65 % its objective of reducing carbon emissions by 2030, thus imposing in the name of the law of future generations a higher objective than thatVoted by the European Parliament.In France the Council of State gave 9 months, from the end of June, to the French government so that it achieved the objective that it had set for a reduction in 40 % emissions by 2030.Some institutions have therefore undoubtedly taken the measure of the situation which falls to us.

On the other hand, if we turn to the political situation of representative democracies, the situation is much less encouraging.We can distinguish three cases at least.The first is that characteristic of North American biparism with a line of demarcation which is acceptance or denial of climatic issues;The climate, associated with populism and its refusal, is what essentially opposes Democrats to the Republicans.Another scenario, that of Germany and England, for which there is a form of right-left consensus on the major climate issue.With the CO2 law supported on the right and on the left, Switzerland seemed to be oriented towards this case;After the refusal of this law by the people of a short majority, the situation is more uncertain.There remains the case of French with Republicans who oppose all decisions in favor of the environment, and a President of the Republic and his semblance of political party little inclined to act, as shown at the Climate Law, but without denying, paradoxically, the problem.The way to go to build a hollow consensus common to all these democracies is still far away.[5]

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— Linda Mon Jul 11 14:01:03 +0000 2011

The fact remains that certain business circles have chosen to promote, supporting resolutely populist media, the largest climato-skepticism.This is the case of CNews and now from Europe n ° 1 in France.During the Canadian heat wave succeeded each other on the sets of climate-skeptical climato-skeptical pitches than each other, as in an apotropaic gesture, in order to exorcise the potential effect of these dramas on good people.Some journalists were looking for precedents, as if the trend and precipitation of phenomena were nonexistent.More generally, a rapid decarbonation of economies would put in great difficulty many major players in financial centers, whose share of carbon investments remains decisive.

Finally, the fate that the various European states will reserve for the commission project in terms of carbon neutrality by 2050 with a tax on the borders, but also taxing domestic fossil consumption, however ambitious it may be, is notstill sealed and far from acquired.It is also advisable to be attentive to the fact that this plan also carries an extension of market logic to the whole of "natural capital", with compensation markets making the protection of the nature dependent on the volatility ofmarket price.

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Definitely the road leading to a real change of model, alone capable of reducing the current disaster, is still long, and even more uncertain, unlike the destructive course of the habitability of this planet.

[1] Margot Bador & alii, « Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate », Environ.Res.Lett.12 (2017) 074025, https: // do.Org/10.1088/1748-9326/AA751C

[2] https: // www.EEA.europa.EU/Publications/Growth-WITHOUT-ECONOMIC-GROWTH

[3] https: // www.the world.fr/Energies/Article/2021/05/18/L-Agence-Internationale-de-L-Energie-Appelle-A-Ne-Plus-Investir-Dans-de-Nouvelles-Istallations-Petroleres-Ou-Gazieres_6080549_1653054.html

[4] https: // www.novethic.FR/Actualite/Environment/Climate/ISR-cheese/Netherlands-Shell-Est-Condamne-A-Reduce-de-45-SES-ENSISSIONS-DE-CO2-D-CI-DIX-ANS-49844.html

[5] See D.Bourg, "ecology and civilizations. Fin d’un monde et nouvelles perspectives », Futuribles, n° 442, mai-juin 2021, pp.33 - 44.