Algeria closes the gas tap to Morocco - the point

Will Spain have enough gas to heat this winter and at what price?The question agitates the Spanish authorities, launched in intense diplomatic activity.Since 1996, Algeria has sent to Spain and Portugal about 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year via the GME (Maghreb Europe gas), a gas pipeline crossing Morocco, but Algiers has decided not to renew thisDue to the serious diplomatic crisis between the two neighbors of the Maghreb.Algeria is the first natural gas supplier in Spain, on which it depends at almost 50 %.And just like Russia, Algeria intends to use gas as a means of pressure.

In this sense, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune "ordered the cessation of trade relations between Sonatrach and the Moroccan Office for Electricity and Drinking Water (ONEE) and the non-renewal of the Agreement which expires on Sunday toMidnight ”, according to a press release from the presidency released by public television.The Head of State made this decision, after consultation with the Prime Minister and the Ministers of Foreign and Energy Affairs, and to protest against "hostile practices of the [Moroccan] kingdom which affect unitynational ", according to the press release.

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Gas as a pressure means

Algerian gas deliveries to Spain will now be made exclusively via the Medgaz submarine gas pipeline, in operation since 2011, but which already operates its capacity of 8 billion cubic meters per year.This represents half of the annual Algerian exports to Spain and Portugal.

"Algeria, through the Sonatrach company, will honor its commitments with Spain, relating to the supply of natural gas, and it is ready to discuss the conditions of additional gas deliveries," said the Algerian Minister of theEnergy and mines, Mohamed Arkab, quoted by the official APS agency."The Spanish partners have been reassured that Algeria provides all the supplied supplies.We also undertake that all deliveries are made through the facilities in Algeria, via Medgaz gas pipeline and gas conversion complexes, "said the minister.The Algerian part aims to be reassuring by evoking an extension of Medgaz's capacity and an increase in exports of natural gas liquefied by the sea route.

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How did we get here ?

Traditionally difficult, relations between Algeria and Morocco have deteriorated in recent months due in particular to the Western Sahara file.

Rabat controls nearly 80 % of this vast desert territory in the rich basement and bordering fish waters while Algiers supports the Sahraouis separatists of the Polisario Front.At the end of 2020, the United States recognized Moroccan sovereignty in this disputed territory.Since then, Algiers has used the slightest pretext to accuse his neighbor.From little sentences in controversy, at the end of August, Algiers unilaterally broke his diplomatic relations with Morocco.

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Trinque Spain

And in the end, Spain seems to be toast.Technical constraints on deliveries, risk of rising prices: Spain "is in a complicated situation", even if "the risk of shortage is limited", underlines with AFP Gonzalo Escribano, energy expertElcano Institute in Madrid.

The Spanish Minister of Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, wanted to be reassuring."The arrangements" have been taken to "ensure the best gas deliveries," she said.

“On paper, this is enough to ensure the same level of delivery.But there is theory and practice, and Spain is not immune to unpleasant surprises, "said Thierry Bros, professor at Sciences Po Paris and specialist in energy geopolitics.

Increasing Medgaz's ability involves work supposed to last until December."You have to change valves, do tests ... We cannot rule out delays," he says.

The problem, according to him, will mainly come from LNG, which implies transport by Lightners."It can be complicated to find this kind of boat, especially at the moment, with the high demand for gas in Asia", which pushes the shipowners to choose "more profitable destinations", adds this expert.In recent months, energy prices have soared in the wake of world courses.

In any case, on the Moroccan side, the Algerian decision seems painless.In a statement published on October 31, the Moroccan ONEE said that the Algerian decision "will only have an insignificant impact on the performance of the national electrical system".Until now, the Kingdom received the equivalent of 97 % of its needs via the GME.Half represents transition rights paid in kind, the other of the gas purchased at preferential prices.

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